23 August 2026
🧭 SECTION CONTEXT — Current Risk Overview
What this section contains

The decision-level snapshot: approved Current Risk, its same-series 30-day Stress Baseline, the bounded 90-day Integrated Risk Outlook, transition status, and priority OSINT indicators.

How to interpret it

The three headline values come from the proprietary integrated series. Supporting OSINT cards provide evidence and timing context; they are not competing headline scores. Higher headline risk values mean greater risk pressure.

Executive Risk Summary

Provides a real-time snapshot of overall country risk, highlighting current pressure levels, highest-risk domains, and the strength of supporting evidence. Use it to quickly understand the situation before exploring detailed analysis.

Integrated Risk Outlook

Bounded 90-day projection from the same final risk series, requiring cross-domain confirmation for band changes.
18.6
FAVORABLE
Projected risk level over the next 90 days
Favorable ≤40 • Guarded 40–60 • Adverse ≥60
Current Risk
18.2/100
30-day baseline17.9/100
90-day outlook18.6/100

Stress Baseline

The 30-day moving average of the same final proprietary risk series used by Current Risk Level. It provides the recent norm for judging whether current risk is rising or easing.
17.9
CALM
30-day average of integrated risk scores
Calm ≤40 • Pressured 40–60 • Strained ≥60
Baseline method
30-day average of final risk scores
Current Risk Level18.2/100
Stress Baseline17.9/100

Current Risk Level

Latest proprietary multi-source country-risk score on a 0–100 scale. Higher values indicate greater current risk pressure.
18.2
STABLE
Latest integrated risk reading
Stable ≤40 • Alert 40–60 • Critical ≥60
Latest reading18.2/100
Stress baseline17.9/100
Current deviation
+0.3 points

Priority OSINT Scores

National Defense33.8
Health34.5
Society34.2
Highest current risk-priority sectors requiring executive attention.
Weekly Risk Movement Table
Current category-level risk pressure measured against an integrated stress framework that combines underlying structural conditions with recent shifts in operational, political, economic, social, and security dynamics.
Coverage window: 2026-08-10 to 2026-08-23. Category pressures preserve the relative intelligence ranking but are aligned so their average stays close to the dashboard's Current Stress Level.
OSINT Narrative Pressure vs Country Baseline
Shows how much negative or stress-related coverage each domain is receiving across OSINT narrative sources, including news media, government statements, press releases, and analytical reports. Colors compare current pressure with the country’s own recent pattern, not an absolute risk score. Green means coverage is near or below normal levels, while yellow and red indicate unusually elevated attention or negative narrative pressure that may signal emerging risk.
ANALYSIS NOTESOSINT Narrative Pressure vs Country BaselineClick to expand · how to read this view
What this chart shows

This heatmap shows whether each OSINT narrative domain is hotter, cooler, or near normal compared with this country’s own recent baseline. It is a country-relative pressure map, not an absolute global stability ranking.

How to read it

Read colors as relative pressure. Cooler cells mean a domain is near or below this country’s recent norm; warmer cells mean it is elevated against that norm. Look for persistence across days and clustering across multiple domains.

Why it matters

Country-relative pressure matters because a fragile country can look cooler than its recent crisis baseline while still remaining fragile, and a stable country can show hotter cells when pressure is unusual for its own history.

Operational example

If Economy and Society turn warmer together for several weeks, analysts should treat the pattern as broadening domestic pressure and then check the momentum, shock, and evidence views for confirmation.

OSINT Narrative Signal Strength & Evidence Support
Shows how strong current narrative risk signals are across online content sources, including news coverage, government statements, press releases, and analytical reports, and how well those signals are supported by available data. This helps distinguish between high-confidence signals driven by sustained reporting and low-confidence signals that may reflect limited or uneven coverage.
Observed Conditions & Information Access Context

Independent observed conditions are displayed as validation or context. They do not mechanically replace or rescore the six subject indicators.

Observed Organized Violence

Event geography · candidate release 26.0.6

A narrow observed-condition measure used only as independent context—not as a general pressure score. This static pilot records its retrieval snapshot but does not yet preserve a revision history.

No qualifying organized-violence events recorded 0 events and 0 estimated fatalities during the 12 completed weeks through 2026-08-23. This does not include ordinary crime, strikes, demonstrations, nonviolent political unrest or general social tension. Interpretation: no independent armed-violence confirmation for National Defense, Governance or Society during this period.
🧭 SECTION CONTEXT — Recent Developments
What this section contains

Six source-linked country developments covering governance, society/public security, economy, defense, health, and international context for the displayed evidence window.

How to interpret it

These items explain what is currently observable. They inform domain interpretation but do not independently set the headline score. Use the displayed evidence date and coverage window when judging freshness.

Recent Developments
Coverage window: 2026-08-10 to 2026-08-23
Use note: Source-referenced two-week news context for dashboard interpretation. Review source links before making high-stakes decisions; this section is designed to explain possible real-world context behind recent dashboard movement.
Governance & Government
Sweden entered the late-August campaign period with polling still pointing to a possible change of government in the September 13 general election. A Reuters-reported SVT poll released on August 18 showed the centre-left opposition ahead by 10 percentage points, while the government simultaneously emphasized election-security measures against foreign malign information influence. The immediate political risk posture is one of active campaigning under heightened information-security scrutiny, with coalition arithmetic and election administration now central to domestic stability.
Impact: Election-security and coalition focus intensifyTrend: Campaign volatility with plausible government shift
Society & Public Security
Public security deteriorated sharply after the August 21 sword attack at Brinell School in Fagersta, where police said one person was killed and three injured and the suspect was detained. By August 22, the incident remained under investigation and local authorities were dealing with grief, memorial activity and school disruption. The episode reinforced Sweden’s broader concern about school safety, rapid police response capacity and the social impact of violent incidents on a normally orderly public environment.
Impact: School-safety and response pressure roseTrend: Security anxiety sharpened after school violence
Economic & Financial Developments
Sweden’s macro backdrop over the window was one of low inflation and a cautious central bank stance. Statistics Sweden said July CPI inflation was 0.2 percent and CPIF inflation 0.7 percent, both down sharply from June, while the Riksbank kept the policy rate at 1.75 percent on August 20 and said the rate decision would apply from August 26. The combination points to easing price pressure, but not enough to eliminate policy caution.
Impact: Inflation eased, policy stayed restrictiveTrend: Disinflation supports a cautious hold
Military & National Defense
Sweden’s defense posture remained focused on Baltic Sea deterrence and coalition integration. In late June, Stockholm and Warsaw launched the Baltic Sea Pact and deepened submarine cooperation, while the Defence Commission’s June interim report warned that the security situation required sustained total-defense strengthening. During the August window, these measures framed Sweden as an increasingly embedded NATO actor, with maritime, air-defense and resilience cooperation still expanding rather than easing.
Impact: Baltic deterrence and interoperability advancedTrend: Sustained force-building and alliance integration
Health & Public Welfare
Health-sector reporting during the window was dominated by two themes: infectious-disease monitoring at home and external health support to Ukraine. The Public Health Agency reported five measles cases in Sweden in August, including cluster-linked festival exposure, while the government allocated SEK 6.9 million to strengthen Ukraine’s health and medical care through Swedish expertise. The domestic picture is therefore one of manageable but active surveillance pressures, alongside continued international health engagement.
Impact: Disease surveillance and aid delivery remained activeTrend: Localized outbreak monitoring with external health support
International & Strategic Positioning
Sweden’s international posture in the window remained tightly linked to Ukraine support and Baltic Sea security. The government said on August 3 that it was funding Ukrainian health-system cooperation, while Swedish leaders had already signed the June Eastern Flank declaration in Gdansk, framing Russia as the primary long-term threat and the Baltic-Black Sea arc as a shared line of defense. Sweden continued to present itself as a NATO-aligned regional security contributor and a steadier partner for Ukraine.
Impact: Ukraine support and Baltic alignment continuedTrend: Deeper regional-security integration
Contextual intelligence only; do not alter dashboard scores or forecast calculations.
🧭 SECTION CONTEXT — Evidence & Data Quality
What this section contains

Coverage, recency, completeness, and source support for the narrative OSINT evidence channel.

How to interpret it

This is a confidence layer, not a risk score. Weak evidence lowers confidence in short-term narrative movement but does not erase slower structural risk.

Evidence & Data Quality

These diagnostics help you judge whether a change is well-supported by real reporting volume or should be treated more cautiously.

OSINT Narrative Signal Quality Check
Checks whether the OSINT narrative signal is supported by sufficient recent coverage, source continuity, and evidence strength. Use it to judge whether current movements are well-supported or should be treated cautiously.
Quick reference
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MetricValue
As-of date (last observation)2026-08-24
Report month2026-08
Days in dataset3523
Imputed blackout days (total)3469
Imputed blackout rate (last 90d)40.0%
Imputed blackout days (last 90d)36
Evidence score (current)30.5 (Low)
Rolling 14d volume (current)30558
External share (30d mean)94.3%
Tone gap (External − Domestic, 30d mean)-0.24
ANALYSIS NOTESOSINT Narrative Signal Quality CheckClick to expand · how to read this view
What this table shows

This table summarizes the freshness, coverage, and evidence support behind the dashboard signal. It is a confidence check, not a separate risk score.

How to read it

Read the metrics as safeguards around interpretation. Strong recency, completeness, and evidence support increase confidence in the current dashboard reading. Weak or missing evidence means sharp moves should be confirmed before being escalated.

Why it matters

Evidence quality matters because a dramatic chart movement can be misleading if it is based on thin reporting, stale data, or collection gaps.

Operational example

If a domain appears to deteriorate while evidence support is low, analysts should treat the move as an early warning and wait for confirmation from volume, source coverage, or related indicators before calling it a durable shift.

🧭 SECTION CONTEXT — Narrative Source & Framing
What this section contains

The volume and origin of attributable web reporting, separated into domestic and external sources and compared across monitored domains.

How to interpret it

Use changes in source mix to identify local visibility, international amplification, or framing divergence. Volume measures attention and evidence support—not risk by itself.

OSINT Narrative Source & Framing

Shows how OSINT narrative coverage is split between inside-country and outside-country sources. External reporting often makes up the majority of country coverage, but not always. The strongest signal is change in the split over time, which can reveal international amplification, local salience, perception risk, reporting constraints, or shifts in who is driving the narrative.

Total OSINT Reporting Volume: Inside vs Outside the Country
Shows total OSINT narrative reporting volume from inside the country versus outside it. External reporting often makes up the majority of country coverage, but that is not always the case. The main value is tracking changes in the domestic/external breakdown, because shifts can reveal international amplification, rising local salience, perception risk, reporting constraints, or changes in who is driving the narrative.
ANALYSIS NOTESTotal OSINT Reporting Volume: Inside vs Outside the CountryClick to expand · how to read this view
What this chart shows

This chart shows how much OSINT reporting volume is supporting the dashboard signal and separates reporting from inside the country and outside the country.

How to read it

Read volume as evidence support and attention intensity. Rising volume can confirm that a signal is well supported, while very low volume means sharp movements should be interpreted cautiously. Compare domestic and external lines to see who is driving attention.

Why it matters

Volume matters because confidence in narrative indicators depends partly on how much reporting exists. It also shows whether a story is locally visible, internationally amplified, or thinly covered.

Operational example

If Economy pressure worsens while both domestic and external volume rise, analysts can treat the move as better supported. If the same move occurs during a volume drop, they should wait for confirmation.

Where Coverage Is Coming From (by Key Indicator)
Shows where OSINT narrative coverage is coming from across the six key indicators. Each line shows the share of that indicator’s coverage coming from outside the country. External coverage is often the majority, but the key insight is change over time: rising external share can signal internationalization or outside amplification, while rising domestic share can signal a more locally driven issue or stronger domestic visibility.
ANALYSIS NOTESWhere Coverage Is Coming From (by Key Indicator)Click to expand · how to read this view
What this chart shows

This chart shows where OSINT coverage is coming from by key indicator. It tracks the share of reporting produced outside the country versus inside the country for each narrative domain.

How to read it

Focus on sustained changes in source share, not one-day movements. Rising external share means outside attention is becoming more important for that domain; rising domestic share means local visibility is increasing. Interpret share changes together with total volume.

Why it matters

Source origin matters because external amplification can affect reputation, diplomacy, investor sentiment, and policy attention, while domestic reporting may better reflect local salience.

Operational example

If National Defense external share rises sharply while other domains remain stable, analysts should treat the security story as increasingly internationalized and check tone gap and currency reactions.

Narrative Sentiment Gap (Domestic vs External)
Shows whether outside reporting is more negative or more positive than domestic reporting. Positive values indicate external sources are more negative than domestic sources, while negative values indicate external sources are more positive (or less negative) than domestic sources. A large gap can signal narrative disconnect, perception risk, competing information environments, or hidden stress not yet reflected internally.
ANALYSIS NOTESNarrative Sentiment Gap (Domestic vs External)Click to expand · how to read this view
What this chart shows

This chart explains Narrative Sentiment Gap (Domestic vs External). It focuses on Shows whether outside reporting is more negative or more positive than domestic reporting. Positive values indicate external sources are more negative than domestic sources, while negative values indicate external sources are more positive (or less negative) than domestic sources. A large gap can signal narrative disconnect, perception risk, competing information environments, or hidden stress not yet reflected internally. so users can connect the visual pattern to a concrete monitoring question.

How to read it

Start with the latest value, then compare direction, persistence, and any related series in the same section. A sustained move with confirmation from evidence, related indicators, or another data source is more important than a one-point change.

Why it matters

This view matters because it provides a specific diagnostic for Narrative Sentiment Gap (Domestic vs External), helping users decide whether the signal is isolated, confirming a broader pattern, or diverging from the rest of the dashboard.

Operational example

If Narrative Sentiment Gap (Domestic vs External) moves sharply but related indicators remain flat and evidence is weak, analysts should treat the move as provisional. If it persists and related signals confirm it, it becomes a stronger monitoring priority.

What’s Driving the Narrative Tone Gap? (30-Day Breakdown by Domain)
Shows how each category contributes to the narrative tone gap by combining external share, tone differences, changes over time, and reporting volume. Use it to see where external coverage dominates, how tone is shifting, and which areas are driving the overall gap.
Quick reference
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CategoryExternal share (30d)Δ share vs prior 30dTone gap (30d)Δ tone gapVolume (30d, total)Flag
Economy93.6%-1.1pp-0.67-0.137437External framing more negative
Governance94.1%-1.3pp-0.16-0.0621159Externally amplified
Health95.4%+0.5pp-0.19-0.1210925Externally amplified
National Defense95.1%-0.3pp-0.03-0.137077Externally amplified
Psychological Strain94.7%-0.4pp-1.51-0.85867External framing more negative
Society93.6%-0.3pp-0.190.4013178Externally amplified
ANALYSIS NOTESWhat’s Driving the Narrative Tone Gap? (30-Day Breakdown by Domain)Click to expand · how to read this view
What this table shows

This table summarizes the last 30 days of domestic versus external reporting by domain, including source share, tone gap, volume, and flags for notable framing differences.

How to read it

Compare rows to identify which domains are most externally amplified or most differently framed. A high external share plus a negative tone gap and meaningful volume is more important than any one of those values alone.

Why it matters

The table turns the source-origin story into a domain-level triage tool. It shows whether outside attention is concentrated in Governance, Economy, Society, National Defense, Health, or Psychological Strain.

Operational example

If National Defense has high external share, negative external tone, and strong volume, analysts should treat security-related coverage as internationally amplified and check whether currency or public-search signals are also reacting.

🧭 SECTION CONTEXT — Narrative Risk Trends
What this section contains

Country-relative narrative pressure, persistence, momentum, and attention shocks derived from attributable online content.

How to interpret it

Use these charts to judge whether reporting pressure is a temporary spike or a sustained change relative to this country’s own history. They are live evidence signals, not the integrated headline series.

OSINT Narrative Risk Trends

Shows how overall narrative risk has been evolving over time based on online content sources, including news coverage, government statements, press releases, and analytical reports. Use this section to understand whether risk is rising, easing, or stable before examining specific domains in more detail.

Narrative Risk Pressure: Spike or Build? (Composite View)
Shows the broader Composite narrative trend alongside attention shocks so users can see whether pressure is a temporary spike or is beginning to affect the underlying risk trend.
ANALYSIS NOTESNarrative Risk Pressure: Spike or Build? (Composite View)Click to expand · how to read this view
What this chart shows

This chart explains Narrative Risk Pressure: Spike or Build? (Composite View). It focuses on Shows the broader Composite narrative trend alongside attention shocks so users can see whether pressure is a temporary spike or is beginning to affect the underlying risk trend. so users can connect the visual pattern to a concrete monitoring question.

How to read it

Start with the latest value, then compare direction, persistence, and any related series in the same section. A sustained move with confirmation from evidence, related indicators, or another data source is more important than a one-point change.

Why it matters

This view matters because it provides a specific diagnostic for Narrative Risk Pressure: Spike or Build? (Composite View), helping users decide whether the signal is isolated, confirming a broader pattern, or diverging from the rest of the dashboard.

Operational example

If Narrative Risk Pressure: Spike or Build? (Composite View) moves sharply but related indicators remain flat and evidence is weak, analysts should treat the move as provisional. If it persists and related signals confirm it, it becomes a stronger monitoring priority.

Indicator-specific recent stress spikes6 additional charts
Is Governance-related Risk Pressure Spiking or Building?
Shows the broader governance trend alongside attention shocks to reveal whether governance pressure is a temporary spike or is beginning to affect the underlying trend.
ANALYSIS NOTESIs Governance-related Risk Pressure Spiking or Building?Click to expand · how to read this view
What this chart shows

This chart compares the underlying governance risk pressure trend with sudden attention shocks in OSINT reporting. It is designed to show whether election disputes, corruption allegations, institutional conflict, court confrontations, or public challenges to leadership legitimacy are appearing as a brief reporting burst or beginning to shift the broader Governance trend.

How to read it

Read the trend line first, then compare it with the attention-shock layer. If attention spikes briefly but the Governance trend stays flat, the issue may be temporary or event-specific. If shocks repeat while the trend also weakens or rises in pressure, governance risk pressure is more likely building rather than simply spiking.

Why it matters

The distinction matters because Governance shocks can be operationally important even when they start as headlines. Repeated shocks that begin to move the trend may weaken confidence in public authority and increase the chance that political strain spills into protests, policy paralysis, or investor concern.

Operational example

If several days of corruption, election, or legitimacy reporting are followed by a weakening governance trend, analysts should treat the signal as building institutional pressure and check whether Society or Economy is also weakening.

Is Economy-related Risk Pressure Spiking or Building?
Shows the broader economic trend alongside attention shocks to reveal whether economic pressure is a temporary spike or is beginning to affect the underlying trend.
ANALYSIS NOTESIs Economy-related Risk Pressure Spiking or Building?Click to expand · how to read this view
What this chart shows

This chart compares the underlying economic risk pressure trend with sudden attention shocks in OSINT reporting. It is designed to show whether inflation shocks, unemployment pressure, subsidy changes, shortages, debt stress, or abrupt cost-of-living deterioration are appearing as a brief reporting burst or beginning to shift the broader Economy trend.

How to read it

Read the trend line first, then compare it with the attention-shock layer. If attention spikes briefly but the Economy trend stays flat, the issue may be temporary or event-specific. If shocks repeat while the trend also weakens or rises in pressure, economic risk pressure is more likely building rather than simply spiking.

Why it matters

The distinction matters because Economy shocks can be operationally important even when they start as headlines. Repeated shocks that begin to move the trend may raise household stress, reduce confidence, and spill into social unrest or governance legitimacy problems.

Operational example

If reports on inflation, shortages, or debt stress spike once but the economic trend stays flat, the issue may be temporary. If shocks repeat while the economic trend rises, analysts should monitor for broader cost-of-living or fiscal pressure.

Is Society-related Risk Pressure Spiking or Building?
Shows the broader society trend alongside attention shocks to reveal whether social pressure is a temporary spike or is beginning to affect the underlying trend.
ANALYSIS NOTESIs Society-related Risk Pressure Spiking or Building?Click to expand · how to read this view
What this chart shows

This chart compares the underlying social risk pressure trend with sudden attention shocks in OSINT reporting. It is designed to show whether protests, strikes, crime waves, communal tension, discrimination, service-access conflict, or public-safety deterioration are appearing as a brief reporting burst or beginning to shift the broader Society trend.

How to read it

Read the trend line first, then compare it with the attention-shock layer. If attention spikes briefly but the Society trend stays flat, the issue may be temporary or event-specific. If shocks repeat while the trend also weakens or rises in pressure, social risk pressure is more likely building rather than simply spiking.

Why it matters

The distinction matters because Society shocks can be operationally important even when they start as headlines. Repeated shocks that begin to move the trend may reduce social cohesion and can become an early sign that economic, governance, or security pressure is reaching the public level.

Operational example

If protest or crime-related attention shocks repeat and the Society trend weakens, analysts should treat the signal as building social pressure and check Governance, Economy, and National Defense for spillover.

Is National Defense-related Risk Pressure Spiking or Building?
Shows the broader national defense trend alongside attention shocks to reveal whether security pressure is a temporary spike or is beginning to affect the underlying trend.
ANALYSIS NOTESIs National Defense-related Risk Pressure Spiking or Building?Click to expand · how to read this view
What this chart shows

This chart compares the underlying national defense and security risk pressure trend with sudden attention shocks in OSINT reporting. It is designed to show whether border incidents, military mobilization, attacks, insurgent activity, terrorism, air-defense events, or major security operations are appearing as a brief reporting burst or beginning to shift the broader National Defense trend.

How to read it

Read the trend line first, then compare it with the attention-shock layer. If attention spikes briefly but the National Defense trend stays flat, the issue may be temporary or event-specific. If shocks repeat while the trend also weakens or rises in pressure, national defense and security risk pressure is more likely building rather than simply spiking.

Why it matters

The distinction matters because National Defense shocks can be operationally important even when they start as headlines. Repeated shocks that begin to move the trend may quickly alter operating conditions, crowd out normal governance and economic activity, and attract external diplomatic or market attention.

Operational example

If a single border incident produces a spike but the security trend remains stable, analysts may treat it as event-specific. If repeated shocks coincide with a rising defense-pressure trend, the signal should be escalated for security review.

Is Health-related Risk Pressure Spiking or Building?
Shows the broader health trend alongside attention shocks to reveal whether health pressure is a temporary spike or is beginning to affect the underlying trend.
ANALYSIS NOTESIs Health-related Risk Pressure Spiking or Building?Click to expand · how to read this view
What this chart shows

This chart compares the underlying health-system risk pressure trend with sudden attention shocks in OSINT reporting. It is designed to show whether outbreaks, hospital overload, medical shortages, health-worker disruption, emergency-response failure, or access-to-care stress are appearing as a brief reporting burst or beginning to shift the broader Health trend.

How to read it

Read the trend line first, then compare it with the attention-shock layer. If attention spikes briefly but the Health trend stays flat, the issue may be temporary or event-specific. If shocks repeat while the trend also weakens or rises in pressure, health-system risk pressure is more likely building rather than simply spiking.

Why it matters

The distinction matters because Health shocks can be operationally important even when they start as headlines. Repeated shocks that begin to move the trend may strain public services, weaken confidence in institutions, and spill into social or economic pressure when disruptions persist.

Operational example

If outbreak or hospital-capacity reporting spikes once while the health trend stays steady, analysts may wait for confirmation. If shocks repeat and the health trend weakens, the signal should be treated as building health-system pressure.

Is Psychological Strain-related Risk Pressure Spiking or Building?
Shows the broader psychological strain trend alongside attention shocks to reveal whether population-stress pressure is a temporary spike or is beginning to affect the underlying trend.
ANALYSIS NOTESIs Psychological Strain-related Risk Pressure Spiking or Building?Click to expand · how to read this view
What this chart shows

This chart compares the underlying Psychological Strain risk-pressure trend with sudden attention shocks in OSINT reporting. It helps determine whether psychological strain, such as trauma, suicide, depression, substance abuse, or broader population stress, is appearing as a brief media spike or becoming a sustained pressure signal that may affect social resilience.

How to read it

Read the trend line first, then compare it with the attention-shock layer. If shocks rise briefly but the trend stays flat, the issue may be temporary or event-specific. If shocks repeat while the trend also rises, psychological strain pressure is likely building rather than simply spiking.

Why it matters

Psychological strain can be an early warning signal of deeper social stress even before unrest, health-system pressure, or governance effects become visible. Repeated shocks plus a rising trend may indicate that population stress is becoming more persistent and could weaken coping capacity, workforce stability, social cohesion, or public confidence.

Operational example

If several days of elevated reporting on suicide, trauma, substance abuse, or mental-health strain are followed by a rising trend line, analysts should treat the signal as building psychological pressure rather than a one-off news cycle and check whether related Society, Health, or Governance indicators are also weakening.

Narrative Risk Pressure Trends
Main smoothed key indicator risk trend lines. Use it to see whether risk has been easing, rising, or drifting sideways over time.
ANALYSIS NOTESNarrative Risk Pressure TrendsClick to expand · how to read this view
What this chart shows

This chart explains Narrative Risk Pressure Trends. It focuses on Main smoothed key indicator risk trend lines. Use it to see whether risk has been easing, rising, or drifting sideways over time. so users can connect the visual pattern to a concrete monitoring question.

How to read it

Start with the latest value, then compare direction, persistence, and any related series in the same section. A sustained move with confirmation from evidence, related indicators, or another data source is more important than a one-point change.

Why it matters

This view matters because it provides a specific diagnostic for Narrative Risk Pressure Trends, helping users decide whether the signal is isolated, confirming a broader pattern, or diverging from the rest of the dashboard.

Operational example

If Narrative Risk Pressure Trends moves sharply but related indicators remain flat and evidence is weak, analysts should treat the move as provisional. If it persists and related signals confirm it, it becomes a stronger monitoring priority.

Overall Narrative Risk Pressure: Short-Term vs Baseline
Shows whether recent narrative risk signals indicate a worsening, easing, or improving situation by comparing short-term momentum (MA7) against the recent baseline (MA14).
ANALYSIS NOTESOverall Narrative Risk Pressure: Short-Term vs BaselineClick to expand · how to read this view
What this chart shows

This chart compares the short-term Composite signal with its smoother baseline. It shows whether the combined signal across Governance, Economy, Society, National Defense, Health, and Psychological Strain is improving, weakening, or beginning to turn before the monthly summary fully catches up.

How to read it

Focus on the gap between the short-term line and the baseline line. If the short-term line is below the baseline, recent Composite conditions are weaker than the recent norm; if it is above, conditions are improving or recovering. A widening gap matters more than a brief crossover.

Why it matters

Momentum is often the first place a domain-level shift becomes visible. For Composite, this helps determine whether multi-domain deterioration, broad narrative pressure, or reinforcing signals across several domains are still intensifying or whether the pressure is beginning to stabilize.

Operational example

If Governance and Economy weaken while Society also starts to deteriorate, and the Composite line falls at the same time, analysts should treat the move as broadening risk pressure rather than a one-domain event.

Monthly Narrative Risk Pressure by Indicator
Shows the month-by-month average narrative risk pressure across the key domains. Composite is excluded so the chart focuses on the individual indicators and their relative movement over time.
ANALYSIS NOTESMonthly Narrative Risk Pressure by IndicatorClick to expand · how to read this view
What this chart shows

This chart explains Monthly Narrative Risk Pressure by Indicator. It focuses on Shows the month-by-month average narrative risk pressure across the key domains. Composite is excluded so the chart focuses on the individual indicators and their relative movement over time. so users can connect the visual pattern to a concrete monitoring question.

How to read it

Start with the latest value, then compare direction, persistence, and any related series in the same section. A sustained move with confirmation from evidence, related indicators, or another data source is more important than a one-point change.

Why it matters

This view matters because it provides a specific diagnostic for Monthly Narrative Risk Pressure by Indicator, helping users decide whether the signal is isolated, confirming a broader pattern, or diverging from the rest of the dashboard.

Operational example

If Monthly Narrative Risk Pressure by Indicator moves sharply but related indicators remain flat and evidence is weak, analysts should treat the move as provisional. If it persists and related signals confirm it, it becomes a stronger monitoring priority.

Overlap of Narrative Pressure (Watch-Level Co-Occurrence)
Shows how often narrative risk indicators simultaneously fall below the Watch threshold (MA14) within the selected time window. Greater overlap indicates broader, more systemic pressure across domains.
ANALYSIS NOTESOverlap of Narrative Pressure (Watch-Level Co-Occurrence)Click to expand · how to read this view
What this chart shows

This chart shows where Watch-level pressure overlaps across multiple OSINT narrative domains during the recent window. It is a breadth and clustering view.

How to read it

Look at which domains overlap and how much of the window is shared. One isolated Watch signal is less systemic than several domains entering Watch together for an extended period.

Why it matters

Overlap matters because systemic stress often emerges when multiple domains weaken at the same time. It helps users distinguish a single-domain problem from a broader stability pattern.

Operational example

If Governance, Economy, and Society overlap in Watch for several weeks, analysts should treat the country as facing a broader pressure cluster and review the drivers section for mechanism.

Where Narrative Pressure Stands Today (by Domain)
Side-by-side view of each indicator showing current levels, recent changes, and risk flags. Use it to quickly see where narrative pressure is highest, persistent, or stabilizing.
Quick reference
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IndicatorMean risk (MA14)MoMYoY24MEOM risk MA14MoM (EOM risk MA14)EOM risk MA7Risk MA7–MA14Days in Watch/Stress risk
Governance55.2↑ +10.2+20.0+20.147.9↓ -11.844.7-3.224/0
Economy59.4↑ +13.3+23.7+23.853.2↓ -8.549.7-3.524/14
Society58.0↑ +10.9+21.4+21.457.2↓ -2.654.1-3.024/0
National Defense57.4→ +0.6+9.7+10.250.2↓ -17.458.0+7.824/11
Health55.7↑ +9.1+18.8+18.952.4↓ -7.149.7-2.724/0
Psychological Strain59.6↑ +12.4+22.2+22.448.8↓ -13.846.1-2.724/14
ANALYSIS NOTESWhere Narrative Pressure Stands Today (by Domain)Click to expand · how to read this view
What this table shows

This table summarizes the key readings for Where Narrative Pressure Stands Today (by Domain) in a compact, row-by-row format.

How to read it

Read each row for level, direction, strength, and persistence. The most important rows are those where current level, recent change, and supporting evidence point in the same direction.

Why it matters

Tables support briefing and triage by turning several chart signals into comparable fields that can be scanned quickly.

Operational example

If one row shows both a weak current level and a worsening recent change, analysts should treat that row as a priority for deeper chart review.

What’s Getting Better or Worse Right Now (Narrative Risk Trends)
Shows which indicators are easing or rising based on recent trend direction and momentum. Use it to quickly understand where conditions are getting better, worse, or staying the same.
Quick reference
Scroll to compare
Series30d risk slope (pts/mo)90d risk slope (pts/mo)365d risk slope (pts/mo)Risk MA7–MA14τ24q24Interpretation
Composite-1.48+2.24+0.02-0.750.050.787Risk broadly flat
Governance-10.87+8.19+0.09-3.160.050.787Recovery attempt from weak level
Economy-4.57+10.13+0.09-3.530.050.787Recovery attempt from weak level
Society-1.63+9.61+0.08-3.020.070.787Rolling risk easing
National Defense-25.99+6.67+0.22+7.820.070.787Recovery attempt from weak level
Health-7.13+8.10+0.09-2.670.050.787Recovery attempt from weak level
Psychological Strain-12.24+9.30+0.11-2.740.040.787Recovery attempt from weak level
ANALYSIS NOTESWhat’s Getting Better or Worse Right Now (Narrative Risk Trends)Click to expand · how to read this view
What this table shows

This table compares short-, medium-, and longer-horizon movement for the Composite and domains. It shows which signals are improving, worsening, flat, or reversing.

How to read it

Start with the 30-day slope to see what is changing now, then compare it with the 90-day and 365-day slopes. When all horizons point in the same direction, the move is more persistent. When only the short horizon changes, the move may be a new shock or rebound.

Why it matters

Trend diagnostics add timing to the dashboard. They help users decide whether a weak reading is new, persistent, or already stabilizing.

Operational example

If Governance is flat over 365 days but sharply negative over 30 days, analysts should treat it as a fresh governance shock and look for event drivers before calling it a long-term decline.

🧭 SECTION CONTEXT — Narrative Risk Relationships
What this section contains

Correlation, co-movement, and lead-lag screening among narrative OSINT domains.

How to interpret it

Relationships can identify reinforcement or spillover, but they do not prove causation. Treat them as monitoring prompts that require evidence and domain corroboration.

OSINT Narrative Risk Correlations

Monthly relationship screens showing which OSINT narrative risk domains reinforce one another and which tend to diverge.

Which Narrative Risk Indicators Tend to Move Together?
Shows measurable co-movement among OSINT Narrative indicators. Displayed relationships require |r| ≥ 0.30 and q-value ≤ 0.10 when available. Correlation strength is classified as Moderate (.30–.49), Strong (.50–.69), Very strong (.70–.84), or System-level (.85+). When several signals form a system-wide cluster, redundant pairs are suppressed and representative links are shown. Correlation is association, not causation.
ANALYSIS NOTESWhich Narrative Risk Indicators Tend to Move Together?Click to expand · how to read this view
What this chart shows

This view shows which OSINT narrative domains tend to move together or diverge over time. It helps identify whether risk pressure is isolated in one domain or linked across several domains.

How to read it

Look for strong positive relationships, strong negative relationships, and clusters. Positive relationships suggest domains often weaken or improve together; negative relationships suggest divergence. Use the results as analytical prompts, not proof of causation.

Why it matters

Cross-domain relationships matter because instability often spreads through reinforcing channels. Economy pressure may pair with Society pressure, Governance pressure may pair with public unrest, and National Defense pressure may affect several domains at once.

Operational example

If Economy and Society show strong co-movement, a cost-of-living shock may be more likely to spill into protest, crime, or public-confidence narratives.

Co-Movement Between OSINT Narrative Indicators
Shows measurable co-movement among OSINT Narrative indicators. Displayed relationships require |r| ≥ 0.30 and q-value ≤ 0.10 when available. Correlation strength is classified as Moderate (.30–.49), Strong (.50–.69), Very strong (.70–.84), or System-level (.85+). When several signals form a system-wide cluster, redundant pairs are suppressed and representative links are shown. Correlation is association, not causation.
Governance ↔ Society
System-level
Correlation1.000
q-value0.000
StrengthSystem-level
System-level positive co-movement: Governance and Society tended to rise or ease together (r=1.00); association only, not causation.
Economy ↔ Psychological Strain
System-level
Correlation1.000
q-value0.000
StrengthSystem-level
System-level positive co-movement: Economy and Psychological Strain tended to rise or ease together (r=1.00); association only, not causation.
National Defense ↔ Health
Move together
Correlation0.670
q-value0.001
StrengthStrong
Strong positive co-movement: National Defense and Health tended to rise or ease together (r=0.67); association only, not causation.
Governance ↔ National Defense
Move together
Correlation0.640
q-value0.001
StrengthStrong
Strong positive co-movement: Governance and National Defense tended to rise or ease together (r=0.64); association only, not causation.
View screened correlation tableSCREENED
Quick reference
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PairCorrelation (r)q-valueCorrelation strengthInterpretation
Governance ↔ Society1.0000.000System-levelSystem-level positive co-movement: Governance and Society tended to rise or ease together (r=1.00); association only, not causation.
Economy ↔ Psychological Strain1.0000.000System-levelSystem-level positive co-movement: Economy and Psychological Strain tended to rise or ease together (r=1.00); association only, not causation.
National Defense ↔ Health0.6700.001StrongStrong positive co-movement: National Defense and Health tended to rise or ease together (r=0.67); association only, not causation.
Governance ↔ National Defense0.6400.001StrongStrong positive co-movement: Governance and National Defense tended to rise or ease together (r=0.64); association only, not causation.
ANALYSIS NOTESCo-Movement Between OSINT Narrative IndicatorsClick to expand · how to read this view
What this table shows

This view shows which OSINT narrative domains tend to move together or diverge over time. It helps identify whether risk pressure is isolated in one domain or linked across several domains.

How to read it

Look for strong positive relationships, strong negative relationships, and clusters. Positive relationships suggest domains often weaken or improve together; negative relationships suggest divergence. Use the results as analytical prompts, not proof of causation.

Why it matters

Cross-domain relationships matter because instability often spreads through reinforcing channels. Economy pressure may pair with Society pressure, Governance pressure may pair with public unrest, and National Defense pressure may affect several domains at once.

Operational example

If Economy and Society show strong co-movement, a cost-of-living shock may be more likely to spill into protest, crime, or public-confidence narratives.

What’s Driving Narrative Risk Right Now: Pressure vs Support
Shows whether the narrative is becoming more negative, losing positive support, or both. Use it to understand what is driving changes in overall narrative conditions.
ANALYSIS NOTESWhat’s Driving Narrative Risk Right Now: Pressure vs SupportClick to expand · how to read this view
What this chart shows

This chart separates destabilizing pressure from stabilizing support. It shows whether the Composite is moving because pressure is rising, buffers are weakening, or both are happening at the same time.

How to read it

Compare the pressure and support lines. Rising pressure with stable support suggests an acute stress wave. Falling support with flat pressure suggests weaker resilience. Rising pressure plus falling support is the most concerning pattern.

Why it matters

Understanding the mechanism matters because the response to rising stress is different from the response to weaker shock-absorption capacity.

Operational example

If Economy pressure rises while Governance support weakens, analysts should treat the move as both a policy/economic problem and a weakening-buffer problem.

What Drove Narrative Risk Pressure This Month?
Breaks the monthly change in narrative risk pressure score into the indicator contributions that pushed it up or down.
ANALYSIS NOTESWhat Drove Narrative Risk Pressure This Month?Click to expand · how to read this view
What this chart shows

This chart explains What Drove Narrative Risk Pressure This Month?. It focuses on Breaks the monthly change in narrative risk pressure score into the indicator contributions that pushed it up or down. so users can connect the visual pattern to a concrete monitoring question.

How to read it

Start with the latest value, then compare direction, persistence, and any related series in the same section. A sustained move with confirmation from evidence, related indicators, or another data source is more important than a one-point change.

Why it matters

This view matters because it provides a specific diagnostic for What Drove Narrative Risk Pressure This Month?, helping users decide whether the signal is isolated, confirming a broader pattern, or diverging from the rest of the dashboard.

Operational example

If What Drove Narrative Risk Pressure This Month? moves sharply but related indicators remain flat and evidence is weak, analysts should treat the move as provisional. If it persists and related signals confirm it, it becomes a stronger monitoring priority.

Narrative Indicators That May Lead the Composite
Screens for narrative risk indicators that historically tend to move before the Composite signal. The table uses Granger-style predictive lead-lag screening within the dashboard time-series model; q-value shows the multiple-testing-adjusted strength of the signal. Treat results as early-warning evidence, not proof of causation.
Lead indicatorTargetDirectionLag (days)q-valueSignal strengthInterpretation
National DefenseCompositeNational Defense → Composite10.000HighNational Defense tends to lead Composite by about 1 days in this screening window; use as timing evidence, not causal proof.
Psychological StrainCompositePsychological Strain → Composite140.000HighPsychological Strain tends to lead Composite by about 14 days in this screening window; use as timing evidence, not causal proof.
SocietyCompositeSociety → Composite130.000HighSociety tends to lead Composite by about 13 days in this screening window; use as timing evidence, not causal proof.
HealthCompositeHealth → Composite80.000HighHealth tends to lead Composite by about 8 days in this screening window; use as timing evidence, not causal proof.
GovernanceCompositeGovernance → Composite20.000HighGovernance tends to lead Composite by about 2 days in this screening window; use as timing evidence, not causal proof.
EconomyCompositeEconomy → Composite10.000HighEconomy tends to lead Composite by about 1 days in this screening window; use as timing evidence, not causal proof.
ANALYSIS NOTESNarrative Indicators That May Lead the CompositeClick to expand · how to read this view
What this table shows

This table screens for signals that have historically tended to move before another signal. It is a timing aid that highlights possible early-warning relationships.

How to read it

Read the direction, lag, and strength together. A useful lead signal should have a plausible relationship, a consistent lag, and enough confidence to justify monitoring. It should not be treated as proof of causation.

Why it matters

Lead-lag screens help analysts decide what to watch first when conditions begin to change. They can reveal whether public concern, narrative pressure, or currency movement tends to appear earlier in the country’s data history.

Operational example

If Government/Governance search concern often rises before Governance OSINT pressure, analysts should monitor search behavior as an early watch line for legitimacy-related narrative pressure.

Potential Narrative Spillovers Between Indicators
Screens for directional lead-lag relationships between narrative risk indicators. Bidirectional results are shown as reinforcing relationships rather than one-way effects. Use this as a spillover watchlist, not as proof that one indicator causes another.
RelationshipPatternLag (days)q-valueSignal strengthInterpretation
National Defense ↔ Psychological StrainBidirectional / reinforcingNational Defense→Psychological Strain: 1; Psychological Strain→National Defense: 10.000HighNational Defense and Psychological Strain both show timing support by about National Defense→Psychological Strain: 1; Psychological Strain→National Defense: 1 days; treat as reinforcing/shared-shock behavior rather than a one-way lead.
Economy ↔ National DefenseBidirectional / reinforcingEconomy→National Defense: 1; National Defense→Economy: 10.000HighEconomy and National Defense both show timing support by about Economy→National Defense: 1; National Defense→Economy: 1 days; treat as reinforcing/shared-shock behavior rather than a one-way lead.
Society ↔ National DefenseBidirectional / reinforcingSociety→National Defense: 14; National Defense→Society: 140.000HighSociety and National Defense both show timing support by about Society→National Defense: 14; National Defense→Society: 14 days; treat as reinforcing/shared-shock behavior rather than a one-way lead.
Governance ↔ National DefenseBidirectional / reinforcingGovernance→National Defense: 1; National Defense→Governance: 10.000HighGovernance and National Defense both show timing support by about Governance→National Defense: 1; National Defense→Governance: 1 days; treat as reinforcing/shared-shock behavior rather than a one-way lead.
National Defense ↔ HealthBidirectional / reinforcingNational Defense→Health: 8; Health→National Defense: 140.000HighNational Defense and Health both show timing support by about National Defense→Health: 8; Health→National Defense: 14 days; treat as reinforcing/shared-shock behavior rather than a one-way lead.
Economy ↔ Psychological StrainBidirectional / reinforcingEconomy→Psychological Strain: 8; Psychological Strain→Economy: 140.000HighEconomy and Psychological Strain both show timing support by about Economy→Psychological Strain: 8; Psychological Strain→Economy: 14 days; treat as reinforcing/shared-shock behavior rather than a one-way lead.
Health ↔ Psychological StrainBidirectional / reinforcingHealth→Psychological Strain: 8; Psychological Strain→Health: 140.000HighHealth and Psychological Strain both show timing support by about Health→Psychological Strain: 8; Psychological Strain→Health: 14 days; treat as reinforcing/shared-shock behavior rather than a one-way lead.
Governance ↔ Psychological StrainBidirectional / reinforcingGovernance→Psychological Strain: 8; Psychological Strain→Governance: 140.000HighGovernance and Psychological Strain both show timing support by about Governance→Psychological Strain: 8; Psychological Strain→Governance: 14 days; treat as reinforcing/shared-shock behavior rather than a one-way lead.
ANALYSIS NOTESPotential Narrative Spillovers Between IndicatorsClick to expand · how to read this view
What this table shows

This table summarizes the key readings for Potential Narrative Spillovers Between Indicators in a compact, row-by-row format.

How to read it

Read each row for level, direction, strength, and persistence. The most important rows are those where current level, recent change, and supporting evidence point in the same direction.

Why it matters

Tables support briefing and triage by turning several chart signals into comparable fields that can be scanned quickly.

Operational example

If one row shows both a weak current level and a worsening recent change, analysts should treat that row as a priority for deeper chart review.

🧭 SECTION CONTEXT — Public Search Dynamics
What this section contains

Relative public search interest across monitored concern topics and its movement over time.

How to interpret it

Search interest measures public attention, not sentiment or country risk directly. Persistent movement is most useful when narrative, domain, or market evidence confirms it.

Public Concern & Search Dynamics

Search-driven public concern analysis for Disease/Illness, Anxiety/Stress, Unemployment, Crime/Safety, and Government/Governance, including forecasts, relationships, and cross-channel linkages.

Public Concern Over Time
Two-week moving average for the five-year native-scale weekly history of the five monitored public-concern topics plus the weighted composite. Each subject remains on its own 0–100 Google Trends scale, so peaks can still reach the top of the chart when that subject hits its local maximum.
ANALYSIS NOTESPublic Concern Over TimeClick to expand · how to read this view
What this chart shows

This chart shows how overall Public Search concern is changing over time. It reflects what people are actively searching for, not OSINT reporting tone or Forex behavior.

How to read it

Read the level and direction of search interest. Sustained increases suggest public concern is building; flat or falling values suggest concern is steady or easing. Compare spikes with topic-level momentum to see what is driving the aggregate move.

Why it matters

Search behavior can reveal public attention before it appears in narrative reporting. It helps identify whether concerns are broadening beneath the surface of the news stream.

Operational example

If overall public concern rises while anxiety and unemployment topics rise together, analysts should check whether Economy, Society, or Psychological Strain narratives begin to confirm the same pattern.

Public Concern Momentum6 additional charts
Overall Public Concern Momentum
Shows whether overall public-search concern is rising, steady, or easing by comparing short-term movement with the recent baseline.
ANALYSIS NOTESOverall Public Concern MomentumClick to expand · how to read this view
What this chart shows

This chart compares short-term Public Search interest with its recent baseline for overall public concern. It shows whether searches related to the combined Public Search signal across monitored concern topics are accelerating, fading, or stabilizing.

How to read it

Read the short-term line against the baseline. If the short-term signal rises above the baseline and stays there, public concern is building. If it falls below the baseline, concern is easing. A single crossover is less important than persistence across several observations.

Why it matters

Search behavior can move before narrative reporting or formal indicators. For overall public concern, momentum matters because public attention is broadening rather than staying confined to one concern.

Operational example

If overall public concern rises while Anxiety/Stress and Unemployment also rise, analysts should treat the move as broader public unease and compare it with the OSINT narrative trend.

Disease/Illness Concern: Short-Term Change (On-Demand)
Useful only as a drill-down when disease/illness is one of the topics currently moving most. The chart compares very recent activity (MA2) against the broader short-term baseline (MA8) to measure momentum and directional change. An MA2 line moving above or ahead of the MA8 line signals accelerating concern and potential emerging pressure, while an MA2 line below the MA8 line indicates weakening momentum, easing public attention, or normalization after a spike.
ANALYSIS NOTESDisease/Illness Concern: Short-Term Change (On-Demand)Click to expand · how to read this view
What this chart shows

This chart explains Disease/Illness Concern: Short-Term Change (On-Demand). It focuses on Useful only as a drill-down when disease/illness is one of the topics currently moving most. The chart compares very recent activity (MA2) against the broader short-term baseline (MA8) to measure momentum and directional change. An MA2 line moving above or ahead of the MA8 line signals accelerating concern and potential emerging pressure, while an MA2 line below the MA8 line indicates weakening momentum, easing public attention, or normalization after a spike. so users can connect the visual pattern to a concrete monitoring question.

How to read it

Start with the latest value, then compare direction, persistence, and any related series in the same section. A sustained move with confirmation from evidence, related indicators, or another data source is more important than a one-point change.

Why it matters

This view matters because it provides a specific diagnostic for Disease/Illness Concern: Short-Term Change (On-Demand), helping users decide whether the signal is isolated, confirming a broader pattern, or diverging from the rest of the dashboard.

Operational example

If Disease/Illness Concern: Short-Term Change (On-Demand) moves sharply but related indicators remain flat and evidence is weak, analysts should treat the move as provisional. If it persists and related signals confirm it, it becomes a stronger monitoring priority.

Anxiety/Stress Concern: Short-Term Change (On-Demand)
Useful only as a drill-down when anxiety/stress is one of the topics currently moving most. The chart compares very recent activity (MA2) against the broader short-term baseline (MA8) to measure momentum and directional change. An MA2 line moving above or ahead of the MA8 line signals accelerating concern and potential emerging pressure, while an MA2 line below the MA8 line indicates weakening momentum, easing public attention, or normalization after a spike.
ANALYSIS NOTESAnxiety/Stress Concern: Short-Term Change (On-Demand)Click to expand · how to read this view
What this chart shows

This chart explains Anxiety/Stress Concern: Short-Term Change (On-Demand). It focuses on Useful only as a drill-down when anxiety/stress is one of the topics currently moving most. The chart compares very recent activity (MA2) against the broader short-term baseline (MA8) to measure momentum and directional change. An MA2 line moving above or ahead of the MA8 line signals accelerating concern and potential emerging pressure, while an MA2 line below the MA8 line indicates weakening momentum, easing public attention, or normalization after a spike. so users can connect the visual pattern to a concrete monitoring question.

How to read it

Start with the latest value, then compare direction, persistence, and any related series in the same section. A sustained move with confirmation from evidence, related indicators, or another data source is more important than a one-point change.

Why it matters

This view matters because it provides a specific diagnostic for Anxiety/Stress Concern: Short-Term Change (On-Demand), helping users decide whether the signal is isolated, confirming a broader pattern, or diverging from the rest of the dashboard.

Operational example

If Anxiety/Stress Concern: Short-Term Change (On-Demand) moves sharply but related indicators remain flat and evidence is weak, analysts should treat the move as provisional. If it persists and related signals confirm it, it becomes a stronger monitoring priority.

Unemployment Concern: Short-Term Change (On-Demand)
Useful only as a drill-down when unemployment is one of the topics currently moving most. The chart compares very recent activity (MA2) against the broader short-term baseline (MA8) to measure momentum and directional change. An MA2 line moving above or ahead of the MA8 line signals accelerating concern and potential emerging pressure, while an MA2 line below the MA8 line indicates weakening momentum, easing public attention, or normalization after a spike.
ANALYSIS NOTESUnemployment Concern: Short-Term Change (On-Demand)Click to expand · how to read this view
What this chart shows

This chart explains Unemployment Concern: Short-Term Change (On-Demand). It focuses on Useful only as a drill-down when unemployment is one of the topics currently moving most. The chart compares very recent activity (MA2) against the broader short-term baseline (MA8) to measure momentum and directional change. An MA2 line moving above or ahead of the MA8 line signals accelerating concern and potential emerging pressure, while an MA2 line below the MA8 line indicates weakening momentum, easing public attention, or normalization after a spike. so users can connect the visual pattern to a concrete monitoring question.

How to read it

Start with the latest value, then compare direction, persistence, and any related series in the same section. A sustained move with confirmation from evidence, related indicators, or another data source is more important than a one-point change.

Why it matters

This view matters because it provides a specific diagnostic for Unemployment Concern: Short-Term Change (On-Demand), helping users decide whether the signal is isolated, confirming a broader pattern, or diverging from the rest of the dashboard.

Operational example

If Unemployment Concern: Short-Term Change (On-Demand) moves sharply but related indicators remain flat and evidence is weak, analysts should treat the move as provisional. If it persists and related signals confirm it, it becomes a stronger monitoring priority.

Crime/Safety Concern: Short-Term Change (On-Demand)
Useful only as a drill-down when crime/safety is one of the topics currently moving most. The chart compares very recent activity (MA2) against the broader short-term baseline (MA8) to measure momentum and directional change. An MA2 line moving above or ahead of the MA8 line signals accelerating concern and potential emerging pressure, while an MA2 line below the MA8 line indicates weakening momentum, easing public attention, or normalization after a spike.
ANALYSIS NOTESCrime/Safety Concern: Short-Term Change (On-Demand)Click to expand · how to read this view
What this chart shows

This chart explains Crime/Safety Concern: Short-Term Change (On-Demand). It focuses on Useful only as a drill-down when crime/safety is one of the topics currently moving most. The chart compares very recent activity (MA2) against the broader short-term baseline (MA8) to measure momentum and directional change. An MA2 line moving above or ahead of the MA8 line signals accelerating concern and potential emerging pressure, while an MA2 line below the MA8 line indicates weakening momentum, easing public attention, or normalization after a spike. so users can connect the visual pattern to a concrete monitoring question.

How to read it

Start with the latest value, then compare direction, persistence, and any related series in the same section. A sustained move with confirmation from evidence, related indicators, or another data source is more important than a one-point change.

Why it matters

This view matters because it provides a specific diagnostic for Crime/Safety Concern: Short-Term Change (On-Demand), helping users decide whether the signal is isolated, confirming a broader pattern, or diverging from the rest of the dashboard.

Operational example

If Crime/Safety Concern: Short-Term Change (On-Demand) moves sharply but related indicators remain flat and evidence is weak, analysts should treat the move as provisional. If it persists and related signals confirm it, it becomes a stronger monitoring priority.

Government/Governance Concern: Short-Term Change (On-Demand)
Useful only as a drill-down when government/governance is one of the topics currently moving most. The chart compares very recent activity (MA2) against the broader short-term baseline (MA8) to measure momentum and directional change. An MA2 line moving above or ahead of the MA8 line signals accelerating concern and potential emerging pressure, while an MA2 line below the MA8 line indicates weakening momentum, easing public attention, or normalization after a spike.
ANALYSIS NOTESGovernment/Governance Concern: Short-Term Change (On-Demand)Click to expand · how to read this view
What this chart shows

This chart explains Government/Governance Concern: Short-Term Change (On-Demand). It focuses on Useful only as a drill-down when government/governance is one of the topics currently moving most. The chart compares very recent activity (MA2) against the broader short-term baseline (MA8) to measure momentum and directional change. An MA2 line moving above or ahead of the MA8 line signals accelerating concern and potential emerging pressure, while an MA2 line below the MA8 line indicates weakening momentum, easing public attention, or normalization after a spike. so users can connect the visual pattern to a concrete monitoring question.

How to read it

Start with the latest value, then compare direction, persistence, and any related series in the same section. A sustained move with confirmation from evidence, related indicators, or another data source is more important than a one-point change.

Why it matters

This view matters because it provides a specific diagnostic for Government/Governance Concern: Short-Term Change (On-Demand), helping users decide whether the signal is isolated, confirming a broader pattern, or diverging from the rest of the dashboard.

Operational example

If Government/Governance Concern: Short-Term Change (On-Demand) moves sharply but related indicators remain flat and evidence is weak, analysts should treat the move as provisional. If it persists and related signals confirm it, it becomes a stronger monitoring priority.

🧭 SECTION CONTEXT — Public Search Relationships
What this section contains

Screened relationships among public-search concern topics, including strength and statistical controls where available.

How to interpret it

Use co-movement to identify clusters of public concern. Association does not establish causation and should not be converted directly into a headline risk score.

Public Search Interest Correlations

Monthly relationship screens showing which public search topics reinforce one another and which tend to diverge.

Public Search Interest Co-Movement Matrix
Shows measurable co-movement among public-search topics. Displayed relationships require |r| ≥ 0.30 and q-value ≤ 0.10 when available. Correlation strength is classified as Moderate (.30–.49), Strong (.50–.69), Very strong (.70–.84), or System-level (.85+). When several signals form a system-wide cluster, redundant pairs are suppressed and representative links are shown. Correlation is association, not causation.
Public Search Interest Pairings
Shows measurable co-movement among public-search topics. Displayed relationships require |r| ≥ 0.30 and q-value ≤ 0.10 when available. Correlation strength is classified as Moderate (.30–.49), Strong (.50–.69), Very strong (.70–.84), or System-level (.85+). When several signals form a system-wide cluster, redundant pairs are suppressed and representative links are shown. Correlation is association, not causation.
Disease/Illness ↔ Anxiety/Stress
Move together
Correlation0.710
q-value0.000
StrengthVery strong
Very strong positive co-movement: Disease/Illness and Anxiety/Stress tended to rise or ease together (r=0.71); association only, not causation.
Anxiety/Stress ↔ Unemployment
Move together
Correlation0.610
q-value0.000
StrengthStrong
Strong positive co-movement: Anxiety/Stress and Unemployment tended to rise or ease together (r=0.61); association only, not causation.
Crime/Safety ↔ Government/Governance
Move together
Correlation0.602
q-value0.000
StrengthStrong
Strong positive co-movement: Crime/Safety and Government/Governance tended to rise or ease together (r=0.60); association only, not causation.
Unemployment ↔ Government/Governance
Move together
Correlation0.598
q-value0.000
StrengthStrong
Strong positive co-movement: Unemployment and Government/Governance tended to rise or ease together (r=0.60); association only, not causation.
Unemployment ↔ Crime/Safety
Move together
Correlation0.556
q-value0.000
StrengthStrong
Strong positive co-movement: Unemployment and Crime/Safety tended to rise or ease together (r=0.56); association only, not causation.
Disease/Illness ↔ Unemployment
Move together
Correlation0.458
q-value0.000
StrengthModerate
Moderate positive co-movement: Disease/Illness and Unemployment tended to rise or ease together (r=0.46); association only, not causation.
Anxiety/Stress ↔ Government/Governance
Move together
Correlation0.437
q-value0.001
StrengthModerate
Moderate positive co-movement: Anxiety/Stress and Government/Governance tended to rise or ease together (r=0.44); association only, not causation.
Anxiety/Stress ↔ Crime/Safety
Move together
Correlation0.403
q-value0.002
StrengthModerate
Moderate positive co-movement: Anxiety/Stress and Crime/Safety tended to rise or ease together (r=0.40); association only, not causation.
View screened correlation tableSCREENED
PairCorrelation (r)q-valueCorrelation strengthInterpretation
Disease/Illness ↔ Anxiety/Stress0.7100.000Very strongVery strong positive co-movement: Disease/Illness and Anxiety/Stress tended to rise or ease together (r=0.71); association only, not causation.
Anxiety/Stress ↔ Unemployment0.6100.000StrongStrong positive co-movement: Anxiety/Stress and Unemployment tended to rise or ease together (r=0.61); association only, not causation.
Crime/Safety ↔ Government/Governance0.6020.000StrongStrong positive co-movement: Crime/Safety and Government/Governance tended to rise or ease together (r=0.60); association only, not causation.
Unemployment ↔ Government/Governance0.5980.000StrongStrong positive co-movement: Unemployment and Government/Governance tended to rise or ease together (r=0.60); association only, not causation.
Unemployment ↔ Crime/Safety0.5560.000StrongStrong positive co-movement: Unemployment and Crime/Safety tended to rise or ease together (r=0.56); association only, not causation.
Disease/Illness ↔ Unemployment0.4580.000ModerateModerate positive co-movement: Disease/Illness and Unemployment tended to rise or ease together (r=0.46); association only, not causation.
Anxiety/Stress ↔ Government/Governance0.4370.001ModerateModerate positive co-movement: Anxiety/Stress and Government/Governance tended to rise or ease together (r=0.44); association only, not causation.
Anxiety/Stress ↔ Crime/Safety0.4030.002ModerateModerate positive co-movement: Anxiety/Stress and Crime/Safety tended to rise or ease together (r=0.40); association only, not causation.
Which Public Concerns Tend to Move First?
Screens for lead-lag relationships among public-search topics. Rows show cases where one search-interest topic historically tended to move before another in weekly changes. Bidirectional results should be read as reinforcing public-concern patterns or shared-shock behavior, not one-way causation.
Quick reference
Scroll to compare
PairCorrelation (r)q-valueCorrelation strengthInterpretation
Disease/Illness ↔ Anxiety/Stress0.7100.000Very strongVery strong positive co-movement: Disease/Illness and Anxiety/Stress tended to rise or ease together (r=0.71); association only, not causation.
Anxiety/Stress ↔ Unemployment0.6100.000StrongStrong positive co-movement: Anxiety/Stress and Unemployment tended to rise or ease together (r=0.61); association only, not causation.
Crime/Safety ↔ Government/Governance0.6020.000StrongStrong positive co-movement: Crime/Safety and Government/Governance tended to rise or ease together (r=0.60); association only, not causation.
Unemployment ↔ Government/Governance0.5980.000StrongStrong positive co-movement: Unemployment and Government/Governance tended to rise or ease together (r=0.60); association only, not causation.
Unemployment ↔ Crime/Safety0.5560.000StrongStrong positive co-movement: Unemployment and Crime/Safety tended to rise or ease together (r=0.56); association only, not causation.
Disease/Illness ↔ Unemployment0.4580.000ModerateModerate positive co-movement: Disease/Illness and Unemployment tended to rise or ease together (r=0.46); association only, not causation.
Anxiety/Stress ↔ Government/Governance0.4370.001ModerateModerate positive co-movement: Anxiety/Stress and Government/Governance tended to rise or ease together (r=0.44); association only, not causation.
Anxiety/Stress ↔ Crime/Safety0.4030.002ModerateModerate positive co-movement: Anxiety/Stress and Crime/Safety tended to rise or ease together (r=0.40); association only, not causation.
ANALYSIS NOTESPublic Search Interest Co-Movement MatrixClick to expand · how to read this view
What this chart shows

This view shows which Public Search concerns tend to move together or diverge. It uses search-interest behavior to identify clusters of public attention, such as concern about unemployment moving with concern about governance or crime and safety.

How to read it

Look for the strongest positive and negative relationships. Positive relationships suggest concerns rise and fall together; negative relationships suggest divergence. Treat these as relationship screens, not proof that one concern causes another.

Why it matters

Public concern clusters matter because they can reveal when anxiety is broadening across issues. That can help analysts anticipate whether a single concern is likely to remain isolated or become part of a wider public-pressure pattern.

Operational example

If Unemployment and Government/Governance concern move together for several months, analysts should check whether economic anxiety is becoming a legitimacy or policy-confidence issue.

🧭 SECTION CONTEXT — Currency Signals
What this section contains

The country currency or an explicit benchmark exchange-rate series, its recent direction, latest observation date, and market-pressure interpretation.

How to interpret it

Currency is a required market-facing cross-check for every country. A weakening currency can confirm Economy or Governance pressure, while divergence can identify timing differences. It is not a standalone country-risk verdict.

Currency Signals

Financial views showing whether currency behavior is reinforcing or diverging from the country’s narrative-risk signal.

Currency Snapshot
Provides a concise view of USD/SEK conditions, translated into a risk-pressure score relative to the currency’s history. It highlights the current position, short-term movement, and expected near-term range.

This Month’s Currency Risk Baseline

The smoothed monthly reference point for currency pressure. Compare the latest signal with this baseline.
69.3
STRESS
Low Risk <40 • Watch 40–60 • Stress ≥60
Risk-pressure score from FOREX_Normalized (MA30)

Latest Currency Risk Signal

Shows current currency pressure and whether it is above or below its recent baseline.
68.7
STRESS
Low Risk <40 • Watch 40–60 • Stress ≥60
Momentum (MA7–MA30) -0.7

90-Day Currency Risk Range

Shows a bounded near-term planning range for the currency pressure signal.
70.2
STRESS
Low Risk <40 • Watch 40–60 • Stress ≥60
Envelope: 68.7–71.7
🔎 ANALYSIS NOTESCurrency SnapshotClick to expand · how to read this view
What this view shows

Three standardized risk-pressure readings derived from USD/SEK.

How to read it

Higher values mean greater currency pressure. Compare the latest signal with the monthly baseline and the 90-day range. A higher rate means the Sweden currency (SEK) is weaker against the U.S. dollar.

Why it matters

Currency pressure can confirm or diverge from Economy and Governance evidence. Source: Sweden_fin.csv; latest observation: 2026-08-22.

Operational example

If the latest signal rises above its baseline while economic narratives worsen, treat the combined evidence as stronger than either channel alone.

Exchange Rate Trend
Shows the recent USD/SEK exchange-rate path with seven-day smoothing. Use it to see whether market pressure is building, easing, or broadly unchanged.
🔎 ANALYSIS NOTESExchange Rate TrendClick to expand · how to read this view
What this view shows

The USD/SEK exchange rate through 2026-08-22, smoothed with a seven-day moving average.

How to read it

Read the slope and persistence, not a single point. A higher rate means the Sweden currency (SEK) is weaker against the U.S. dollar.

Why it matters

The market series is a confirmation and timing layer; it does not independently determine the integrated country-risk score. Source: Sweden_fin.csv.

Operational example

A sustained adverse move alongside rising Economy or Governance risk is more decision-relevant than a brief isolated currency fluctuation.

🧭 SECTION CONTEXT — Cross-Source Alignment
What this section contains

Comparison of narrative OSINT, Public Search, and currency/market signals to show confirmation, divergence, and possible timing differences.

How to interpret it

Convergence across independent channels increases confidence. Divergence is analytically important and should be explained rather than averaged away.

Cross-Source Signal Alignment & Divergence

Shows where narrative risk signals, public concern, and financial indicators move together or diverge, helping determine whether observed risks are broadly supported or isolated.

Public Search Interest vs OSINT Narrative Signal Map
Shows measurable co-movement among public-search topics and OSINT Narrative indicators. Displayed relationships require |r| ≥ 0.30 and q-value ≤ 0.10 when available. Correlation strength is classified as Moderate (.30–.49), Strong (.50–.69), Very strong (.70–.84), or System-level (.85+). When several signals form a system-wide cluster, redundant pairs are suppressed and representative links are shown. Correlation is association, not causation.
ANALYSIS NOTESPublic Search Interest vs OSINT Narrative Signal MapClick to expand · how to read this view
What this chart shows

This chart explains Public Search Interest vs OSINT Narrative Signal Map. It focuses on Shows measurable co-movement among public-search topics and OSINT Narrative indicators. Displayed relationships require |r| ≥ 0.30 and q-value ≤ 0.10 when available. Correlation strength is classified as Moderate (.30–.49), Strong (.50–.69), Very strong (.70–.84), or System-level (.85+). When several signals form a system-wide cluster, redundant pairs are suppressed and representative links are shown. Correlation is association, not causation. so users can connect the visual pattern to a concrete monitoring question.

How to read it

Start with the latest value, then compare direction, persistence, and any related series in the same section. A sustained move with confirmation from evidence, related indicators, or another data source is more important than a one-point change.

Why it matters

This view matters because it provides a specific diagnostic for Public Search Interest vs OSINT Narrative Signal Map, helping users decide whether the signal is isolated, confirming a broader pattern, or diverging from the rest of the dashboard.

Operational example

If Public Search Interest vs OSINT Narrative Signal Map moves sharply but related indicators remain flat and evidence is weak, analysts should treat the move as provisional. If it persists and related signals confirm it, it becomes a stronger monitoring priority.

Public Concern vs Currency Pressure (On-Demand)
Compares public-search concern pressure with currency pressure to test whether public attention and market stress are moving together or diverging.
ANALYSIS NOTESPublic Concern vs Currency Pressure (On-Demand)Click to expand · how to read this view
What this chart shows

This view compares Public Search concern with currency pressure. It shows whether public attention and market stress are moving together or diverging.

How to read it

Read alignment, timing, and persistence. If public concern rises with currency pressure, the channels reinforce one another. If one moves first, it may provide a watch signal. If they diverge, investigate whether the concern is not market-relevant or whether the market reaction is delayed.

Why it matters

This matters because public concern and market pressure capture different audiences. Alignment suggests a broader confidence issue, while divergence can reveal a compartmentalized concern.

Operational example

If Government/Governance searches rise and currency pressure follows, analysts should check whether policy credibility or political uncertainty is becoming market-relevant.

Public Search Interest That May Lead OSINT Narrative Indicators
Screens for cases where public-search topic interest historically tended to move before an OSINT Narrative key indicator. The table focuses on public search leading narrative indicators; reverse-only relationships are excluded because they do not answer the early-public-concern question.
No valid public-search-leading OSINT Narrative indicator relationships met the lead-lag screen for this country in the tested window.
ANALYSIS NOTESPublic Search Interest That May Lead OSINT Narrative IndicatorsClick to expand · how to read this view
What this chart shows

This chart explains Public Search Interest That May Lead OSINT Narrative Indicators. It focuses on Screens for cases where public-search topic interest historically tended to move before an OSINT Narrative key indicator. The table focuses on public search leading narrative indicators; reverse-only relationships are excluded because they do not answer the early-public-concern question. so users can connect the visual pattern to a concrete monitoring question.

How to read it

Start with the latest value, then compare direction, persistence, and any related series in the same section. A sustained move with confirmation from evidence, related indicators, or another data source is more important than a one-point change.

Why it matters

This view matters because it provides a specific diagnostic for Public Search Interest That May Lead OSINT Narrative Indicators, helping users decide whether the signal is isolated, confirming a broader pattern, or diverging from the rest of the dashboard.

Operational example

If Public Search Interest That May Lead OSINT Narrative Indicators moves sharply but related indicators remain flat and evidence is weak, analysts should treat the move as provisional. If it persists and related signals confirm it, it becomes a stronger monitoring priority.

Public Concern vs Overall Risk Signal
Compares overall public-search concern with the dashboard’s overall narrative risk signal to show whether public attention is reinforcing or diverging from the main picture.
ANALYSIS NOTESPublic Concern vs Overall Risk SignalClick to expand · how to read this view
What this chart shows

This chart explains Public Concern vs Overall Risk Signal. It focuses on Compares overall public-search concern with the dashboard’s overall narrative risk signal to show whether public attention is reinforcing or diverging from the main picture. so users can connect the visual pattern to a concrete monitoring question.

How to read it

Start with the latest value, then compare direction, persistence, and any related series in the same section. A sustained move with confirmation from evidence, related indicators, or another data source is more important than a one-point change.

Why it matters

This view matters because it provides a specific diagnostic for Public Concern vs Overall Risk Signal, helping users decide whether the signal is isolated, confirming a broader pattern, or diverging from the rest of the dashboard.

Operational example

If Public Concern vs Overall Risk Signal moves sharply but related indicators remain flat and evidence is weak, analysts should treat the move as provisional. If it persists and related signals confirm it, it becomes a stronger monitoring priority.

Public Search Interest vs Currency Pressure Map
Shows measurable co-movement among public-search topics and currency pressure. Displayed relationships require |r| ≥ 0.30 and q-value ≤ 0.10 when available. Correlation strength is classified as Moderate (.30–.49), Strong (.50–.69), Very strong (.70–.84), or System-level (.85+). When several signals form a system-wide cluster, redundant pairs are suppressed and representative links are shown. Correlation is association, not causation.
ANALYSIS NOTESPublic Search Interest vs Currency Pressure MapClick to expand · how to read this view
What this chart shows

This chart explains Public Search Interest vs Currency Pressure Map. It focuses on Shows measurable co-movement among public-search topics and currency pressure. Displayed relationships require |r| ≥ 0.30 and q-value ≤ 0.10 when available. Correlation strength is classified as Moderate (.30–.49), Strong (.50–.69), Very strong (.70–.84), or System-level (.85+). When several signals form a system-wide cluster, redundant pairs are suppressed and representative links are shown. Correlation is association, not causation. so users can connect the visual pattern to a concrete monitoring question.

How to read it

Start with the latest value, then compare direction, persistence, and any related series in the same section. A sustained move with confirmation from evidence, related indicators, or another data source is more important than a one-point change.

Why it matters

This view matters because it provides a specific diagnostic for Public Search Interest vs Currency Pressure Map, helping users decide whether the signal is isolated, confirming a broader pattern, or diverging from the rest of the dashboard.

Operational example

If Public Search Interest vs Currency Pressure Map moves sharply but related indicators remain flat and evidence is weak, analysts should treat the move as provisional. If it persists and related signals confirm it, it becomes a stronger monitoring priority.

Public Search Interest vs Currency Pressure Relationships
Screens for cases where public-search topic interest historically tended to move before currency pressure. Reverse-only currency-leading-search rows are excluded, while bidirectional results may appear as reinforcing relationships. Use this as a timing screen, not proof of causation.
No valid public-search-leading currency-pressure relationships met the lead-lag screen for this country in the tested window.
ANALYSIS NOTESPublic Search Interest vs Currency Pressure RelationshipsClick to expand · how to read this view
What this table shows

This table summarizes Public Search concern patterns, relationships, or outlook values depending on the row set shown. It is based on what people are actively searching for, not on OSINT reporting tone.

How to read it

Read the rows for topic-level concentration, direction, and strength. Public Search values are best used to identify rising concern, issue clustering, or concern that may precede narrative reporting.

Why it matters

Public Search tables help reveal what people are worried about before those concerns fully appear in the narrative stream or market data.

Operational example

If Anxiety/Stress and Crime/Safety concerns both rise while Society OSINT is still flat, analysts should treat public concern as an early watch line and wait for narrative confirmation.

Which OSINT Narrative Risk Signals Are Moving With the Currency?
Shows measurable co-movement among OSINT Narrative indicators and currency pressure. Displayed relationships require |r| ≥ 0.30 and q-value ≤ 0.10 when available. Correlation strength is classified as Moderate (.30–.49), Strong (.50–.69), Very strong (.70–.84), or System-level (.85+). When several signals form a system-wide cluster, redundant pairs are suppressed and representative links are shown. Correlation is association, not causation.
ANALYSIS NOTESWhich OSINT Narrative Risk Signals Are Moving With the Currency?Click to expand · how to read this view
What this chart shows

This view shows which OSINT or Public Search signals have moved most closely with currency pressure. It is a cross-channel confirmation screen, not a causal model.

How to read it

Focus on relationships with meaningful strength and a plausible country story. A strong positive relationship suggests the signal and currency pressure tend to rise together; weak or inconsistent relationships should not drive decisions on their own.

Why it matters

When currency pressure aligns with a narrative or public-concern signal, the dashboard is showing that risk may be visible in both information and market channels. Divergence is also useful because it may indicate delayed market reaction or over-amplified narrative pressure.

Operational example

If Governance pressure is strongly aligned with currency pressure, analysts should examine whether policy uncertainty or institutional concerns are affecting market confidence.

Which Signal Usually Moves First?
Shows whether currency pressure or narrative risk indicators have historically tended to move first. Use as a timing aid, not proof of causation.
No pairs met the significance threshold (p ≤ 0.05) with sufficient history for this country.
ANALYSIS NOTESWhich Signal Usually Moves First?Click to expand · how to read this view
What this table shows

This table screens for signals that have historically tended to move before another signal. It is a timing aid that highlights possible early-warning relationships.

How to read it

Read the direction, lag, and strength together. A useful lead signal should have a plausible relationship, a consistent lag, and enough confidence to justify monitoring. It should not be treated as proof of causation.

Why it matters

Lead-lag screens help analysts decide what to watch first when conditions begin to change. They can reveal whether public concern, narrative pressure, or currency movement tends to appear earlier in the country’s data history.

Operational example

If Government/Governance search concern often rises before Governance OSINT pressure, analysts should monitor search behavior as an early watch line for legitimacy-related narrative pressure.

🧭 SECTION CONTEXT — Underlying Signal Forecasts & Uncertainty
What this section contains

Forecast charts for the underlying monitored signal channels and domain series, including uncertainty ranges. The approved integrated 90-day headline outlook remains in the Current Risk Overview and assessment.

How to interpret it

Do not treat these underlying chart forecasts as replacements for the integrated headline Outlook. Some underlying series are stability-oriented, where falling values indicate weakening; read each chart’s local axis and notes before interpreting direction.

Integrated Risk Outlook

Forward-looking view of integrated country risk, showing the overall forecast path, uncertainty range, and domain-level forecast ranges over the next 13 weeks (~90 days).

Integrated Risk Outlook
This section shows the forward path of the sameNarrative + Public Interestrisk series used by theCurrent Stress LevelandStress Baselinecards. It presents a dedicated overall history-plus-forecast view and prefers the macro-anchored overall series whenever that series is available.
  • Read the recent history first to see the latest overall path of risk.
  • Then compare the forecast median with the p10–p90 band to judge likely direction and uncertainty.
  • Use the checkpoint table to see how that same overall series is likely to evolve over the next 13 weeks.
Why it matters:This section keeps the total country-risk view separate from the narrower category-centered forecast charts, while making sure the historical line and the forecast are built from the same risk logic used in the executive summary.
Example:If the overall forecast median drifts lower and the forecast band also shifts lower, the dashboard is signaling broader near-term deterioration in overall country risk rather than a one-off disturbance.
Underlying Signal Forecasts & Uncertainty
Shows the recent integrated country-risk path and the forecast median with uncertainty range over the next 13 weeks (~90 days). Use it to assess likely direction and confidence in the overall outlook.
ANALYSIS NOTESIntegrated Risk OutlookClick to expand · how to read this view
What this chart shows

This chart explains Integrated Risk Outlook. It focuses on Shows the recent integrated country-risk path and the forecast median with uncertainty range over the next 13 weeks (~90 days). Use it to assess likely direction and confidence in the overall outlook. so users can connect the visual pattern to a concrete monitoring question.

How to read it

Start with the latest value, then compare direction, persistence, and any related series in the same section. A sustained move with confirmation from evidence, related indicators, or another data source is more important than a one-point change.

Why it matters

This view matters because it provides a specific diagnostic for Integrated Risk Outlook, helping users decide whether the signal is isolated, confirming a broader pattern, or diverging from the rest of the dashboard.

Operational example

If Integrated Risk Outlook moves sharply but related indicators remain flat and evidence is weak, analysts should treat the move as provisional. If it persists and related signals confirm it, it becomes a stronger monitoring priority.