The decision-level snapshot: approved Current Risk, its same-series 30-day Stress Baseline, the bounded 90-day Integrated Risk Outlook, transition status, and priority OSINT indicators.
The three headline values come from the proprietary integrated series. Supporting OSINT cards provide evidence and timing context; they are not competing headline scores. Higher headline risk values mean greater risk pressure.
Provides a real-time snapshot of overall country risk, highlighting current pressure levels, highest-risk domains, and the strength of supporting evidence. Use it to quickly understand the situation before exploring detailed analysis.
This heatmap shows whether each OSINT narrative domain is hotter, cooler, or near normal compared with this country’s own recent baseline. It is a country-relative pressure map, not an absolute global stability ranking.
Read colors as relative pressure. Cooler cells mean a domain is near or below this country’s recent norm; warmer cells mean it is elevated against that norm. Look for persistence across days and clustering across multiple domains.
Country-relative pressure matters because a fragile country can look cooler than its recent crisis baseline while still remaining fragile, and a stable country can show hotter cells when pressure is unusual for its own history.
If Economy and Society turn warmer together for several weeks, analysts should treat the pattern as broadening domestic pressure and then check the momentum, shock, and evidence views for confirmation.
Independent observed conditions are displayed as validation or context. They do not mechanically replace or rescore the six subject indicators.
A narrow observed-condition measure used only as independent context—not as a general pressure score. This static pilot records its retrieval snapshot but does not yet preserve a revision history.
Six source-linked country developments covering governance, society/public security, economy, defense, health, and international context for the displayed evidence window.
These items explain what is currently observable. They inform domain interpretation but do not independently set the headline score. Use the displayed evidence date and coverage window when judging freshness.
Coverage, recency, completeness, and source support for the narrative OSINT evidence channel.
This is a confidence layer, not a risk score. Weak evidence lowers confidence in short-term narrative movement but does not erase slower structural risk.
These diagnostics help you judge whether a change is well-supported by real reporting volume or should be treated more cautiously.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| As-of date (last observation) | 2026-08-24 |
| Report month | 2026-08 |
| Days in dataset | 3523 |
| Imputed blackout days (total) | 3469 |
| Imputed blackout rate (last 90d) | 40.0% |
| Imputed blackout days (last 90d) | 36 |
| Evidence score (current) | 30.5 (Low) |
| Rolling 14d volume (current) | 30558 |
| External share (30d mean) | 94.3% |
| Tone gap (External − Domestic, 30d mean) | -0.24 |
This table summarizes the freshness, coverage, and evidence support behind the dashboard signal. It is a confidence check, not a separate risk score.
Read the metrics as safeguards around interpretation. Strong recency, completeness, and evidence support increase confidence in the current dashboard reading. Weak or missing evidence means sharp moves should be confirmed before being escalated.
Evidence quality matters because a dramatic chart movement can be misleading if it is based on thin reporting, stale data, or collection gaps.
If a domain appears to deteriorate while evidence support is low, analysts should treat the move as an early warning and wait for confirmation from volume, source coverage, or related indicators before calling it a durable shift.
The volume and origin of attributable web reporting, separated into domestic and external sources and compared across monitored domains.
Use changes in source mix to identify local visibility, international amplification, or framing divergence. Volume measures attention and evidence support—not risk by itself.
Shows how OSINT narrative coverage is split between inside-country and outside-country sources. External reporting often makes up the majority of country coverage, but not always. The strongest signal is change in the split over time, which can reveal international amplification, local salience, perception risk, reporting constraints, or shifts in who is driving the narrative.
This chart shows how much OSINT reporting volume is supporting the dashboard signal and separates reporting from inside the country and outside the country.
Read volume as evidence support and attention intensity. Rising volume can confirm that a signal is well supported, while very low volume means sharp movements should be interpreted cautiously. Compare domestic and external lines to see who is driving attention.
Volume matters because confidence in narrative indicators depends partly on how much reporting exists. It also shows whether a story is locally visible, internationally amplified, or thinly covered.
If Economy pressure worsens while both domestic and external volume rise, analysts can treat the move as better supported. If the same move occurs during a volume drop, they should wait for confirmation.
This chart shows where OSINT coverage is coming from by key indicator. It tracks the share of reporting produced outside the country versus inside the country for each narrative domain.
Focus on sustained changes in source share, not one-day movements. Rising external share means outside attention is becoming more important for that domain; rising domestic share means local visibility is increasing. Interpret share changes together with total volume.
Source origin matters because external amplification can affect reputation, diplomacy, investor sentiment, and policy attention, while domestic reporting may better reflect local salience.
If National Defense external share rises sharply while other domains remain stable, analysts should treat the security story as increasingly internationalized and check tone gap and currency reactions.
This chart explains Narrative Sentiment Gap (Domestic vs External). It focuses on Shows whether outside reporting is more negative or more positive than domestic reporting. Positive values indicate external sources are more negative than domestic sources, while negative values indicate external sources are more positive (or less negative) than domestic sources. A large gap can signal narrative disconnect, perception risk, competing information environments, or hidden stress not yet reflected internally. so users can connect the visual pattern to a concrete monitoring question.
Start with the latest value, then compare direction, persistence, and any related series in the same section. A sustained move with confirmation from evidence, related indicators, or another data source is more important than a one-point change.
This view matters because it provides a specific diagnostic for Narrative Sentiment Gap (Domestic vs External), helping users decide whether the signal is isolated, confirming a broader pattern, or diverging from the rest of the dashboard.
If Narrative Sentiment Gap (Domestic vs External) moves sharply but related indicators remain flat and evidence is weak, analysts should treat the move as provisional. If it persists and related signals confirm it, it becomes a stronger monitoring priority.
| Category | External share (30d) | Δ share vs prior 30d | Tone gap (30d) | Δ tone gap | Volume (30d, total) | Flag |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Economy | 93.6% | -1.1pp | -0.67 | -0.13 | 7437 | External framing more negative |
| Governance | 94.1% | -1.3pp | -0.16 | -0.06 | 21159 | Externally amplified |
| Health | 95.4% | +0.5pp | -0.19 | -0.12 | 10925 | Externally amplified |
| National Defense | 95.1% | -0.3pp | -0.03 | -0.13 | 7077 | Externally amplified |
| Psychological Strain | 94.7% | -0.4pp | -1.51 | -0.85 | 867 | External framing more negative |
| Society | 93.6% | -0.3pp | -0.19 | 0.40 | 13178 | Externally amplified |
This table summarizes the last 30 days of domestic versus external reporting by domain, including source share, tone gap, volume, and flags for notable framing differences.
Compare rows to identify which domains are most externally amplified or most differently framed. A high external share plus a negative tone gap and meaningful volume is more important than any one of those values alone.
The table turns the source-origin story into a domain-level triage tool. It shows whether outside attention is concentrated in Governance, Economy, Society, National Defense, Health, or Psychological Strain.
If National Defense has high external share, negative external tone, and strong volume, analysts should treat security-related coverage as internationally amplified and check whether currency or public-search signals are also reacting.
Country-relative narrative pressure, persistence, momentum, and attention shocks derived from attributable online content.
Use these charts to judge whether reporting pressure is a temporary spike or a sustained change relative to this country’s own history. They are live evidence signals, not the integrated headline series.
Shows how overall narrative risk has been evolving over time based on online content sources, including news coverage, government statements, press releases, and analytical reports. Use this section to understand whether risk is rising, easing, or stable before examining specific domains in more detail.
This chart explains Narrative Risk Pressure: Spike or Build? (Composite View). It focuses on Shows the broader Composite narrative trend alongside attention shocks so users can see whether pressure is a temporary spike or is beginning to affect the underlying risk trend. so users can connect the visual pattern to a concrete monitoring question.
Start with the latest value, then compare direction, persistence, and any related series in the same section. A sustained move with confirmation from evidence, related indicators, or another data source is more important than a one-point change.
This view matters because it provides a specific diagnostic for Narrative Risk Pressure: Spike or Build? (Composite View), helping users decide whether the signal is isolated, confirming a broader pattern, or diverging from the rest of the dashboard.
If Narrative Risk Pressure: Spike or Build? (Composite View) moves sharply but related indicators remain flat and evidence is weak, analysts should treat the move as provisional. If it persists and related signals confirm it, it becomes a stronger monitoring priority.
This chart compares the underlying governance risk pressure trend with sudden attention shocks in OSINT reporting. It is designed to show whether election disputes, corruption allegations, institutional conflict, court confrontations, or public challenges to leadership legitimacy are appearing as a brief reporting burst or beginning to shift the broader Governance trend.
Read the trend line first, then compare it with the attention-shock layer. If attention spikes briefly but the Governance trend stays flat, the issue may be temporary or event-specific. If shocks repeat while the trend also weakens or rises in pressure, governance risk pressure is more likely building rather than simply spiking.
The distinction matters because Governance shocks can be operationally important even when they start as headlines. Repeated shocks that begin to move the trend may weaken confidence in public authority and increase the chance that political strain spills into protests, policy paralysis, or investor concern.
If several days of corruption, election, or legitimacy reporting are followed by a weakening governance trend, analysts should treat the signal as building institutional pressure and check whether Society or Economy is also weakening.
This chart compares the underlying economic risk pressure trend with sudden attention shocks in OSINT reporting. It is designed to show whether inflation shocks, unemployment pressure, subsidy changes, shortages, debt stress, or abrupt cost-of-living deterioration are appearing as a brief reporting burst or beginning to shift the broader Economy trend.
Read the trend line first, then compare it with the attention-shock layer. If attention spikes briefly but the Economy trend stays flat, the issue may be temporary or event-specific. If shocks repeat while the trend also weakens or rises in pressure, economic risk pressure is more likely building rather than simply spiking.
The distinction matters because Economy shocks can be operationally important even when they start as headlines. Repeated shocks that begin to move the trend may raise household stress, reduce confidence, and spill into social unrest or governance legitimacy problems.
If reports on inflation, shortages, or debt stress spike once but the economic trend stays flat, the issue may be temporary. If shocks repeat while the economic trend rises, analysts should monitor for broader cost-of-living or fiscal pressure.
This chart compares the underlying social risk pressure trend with sudden attention shocks in OSINT reporting. It is designed to show whether protests, strikes, crime waves, communal tension, discrimination, service-access conflict, or public-safety deterioration are appearing as a brief reporting burst or beginning to shift the broader Society trend.
Read the trend line first, then compare it with the attention-shock layer. If attention spikes briefly but the Society trend stays flat, the issue may be temporary or event-specific. If shocks repeat while the trend also weakens or rises in pressure, social risk pressure is more likely building rather than simply spiking.
The distinction matters because Society shocks can be operationally important even when they start as headlines. Repeated shocks that begin to move the trend may reduce social cohesion and can become an early sign that economic, governance, or security pressure is reaching the public level.
If protest or crime-related attention shocks repeat and the Society trend weakens, analysts should treat the signal as building social pressure and check Governance, Economy, and National Defense for spillover.
This chart compares the underlying national defense and security risk pressure trend with sudden attention shocks in OSINT reporting. It is designed to show whether border incidents, military mobilization, attacks, insurgent activity, terrorism, air-defense events, or major security operations are appearing as a brief reporting burst or beginning to shift the broader National Defense trend.
Read the trend line first, then compare it with the attention-shock layer. If attention spikes briefly but the National Defense trend stays flat, the issue may be temporary or event-specific. If shocks repeat while the trend also weakens or rises in pressure, national defense and security risk pressure is more likely building rather than simply spiking.
The distinction matters because National Defense shocks can be operationally important even when they start as headlines. Repeated shocks that begin to move the trend may quickly alter operating conditions, crowd out normal governance and economic activity, and attract external diplomatic or market attention.
If a single border incident produces a spike but the security trend remains stable, analysts may treat it as event-specific. If repeated shocks coincide with a rising defense-pressure trend, the signal should be escalated for security review.
This chart compares the underlying health-system risk pressure trend with sudden attention shocks in OSINT reporting. It is designed to show whether outbreaks, hospital overload, medical shortages, health-worker disruption, emergency-response failure, or access-to-care stress are appearing as a brief reporting burst or beginning to shift the broader Health trend.
Read the trend line first, then compare it with the attention-shock layer. If attention spikes briefly but the Health trend stays flat, the issue may be temporary or event-specific. If shocks repeat while the trend also weakens or rises in pressure, health-system risk pressure is more likely building rather than simply spiking.
The distinction matters because Health shocks can be operationally important even when they start as headlines. Repeated shocks that begin to move the trend may strain public services, weaken confidence in institutions, and spill into social or economic pressure when disruptions persist.
If outbreak or hospital-capacity reporting spikes once while the health trend stays steady, analysts may wait for confirmation. If shocks repeat and the health trend weakens, the signal should be treated as building health-system pressure.
This chart compares the underlying Psychological Strain risk-pressure trend with sudden attention shocks in OSINT reporting. It helps determine whether psychological strain, such as trauma, suicide, depression, substance abuse, or broader population stress, is appearing as a brief media spike or becoming a sustained pressure signal that may affect social resilience.
Read the trend line first, then compare it with the attention-shock layer. If shocks rise briefly but the trend stays flat, the issue may be temporary or event-specific. If shocks repeat while the trend also rises, psychological strain pressure is likely building rather than simply spiking.
Psychological strain can be an early warning signal of deeper social stress even before unrest, health-system pressure, or governance effects become visible. Repeated shocks plus a rising trend may indicate that population stress is becoming more persistent and could weaken coping capacity, workforce stability, social cohesion, or public confidence.
If several days of elevated reporting on suicide, trauma, substance abuse, or mental-health strain are followed by a rising trend line, analysts should treat the signal as building psychological pressure rather than a one-off news cycle and check whether related Society, Health, or Governance indicators are also weakening.
This chart explains Narrative Risk Pressure Trends. It focuses on Main smoothed key indicator risk trend lines. Use it to see whether risk has been easing, rising, or drifting sideways over time. so users can connect the visual pattern to a concrete monitoring question.
Start with the latest value, then compare direction, persistence, and any related series in the same section. A sustained move with confirmation from evidence, related indicators, or another data source is more important than a one-point change.
This view matters because it provides a specific diagnostic for Narrative Risk Pressure Trends, helping users decide whether the signal is isolated, confirming a broader pattern, or diverging from the rest of the dashboard.
If Narrative Risk Pressure Trends moves sharply but related indicators remain flat and evidence is weak, analysts should treat the move as provisional. If it persists and related signals confirm it, it becomes a stronger monitoring priority.
This chart compares the short-term Composite signal with its smoother baseline. It shows whether the combined signal across Governance, Economy, Society, National Defense, Health, and Psychological Strain is improving, weakening, or beginning to turn before the monthly summary fully catches up.
Focus on the gap between the short-term line and the baseline line. If the short-term line is below the baseline, recent Composite conditions are weaker than the recent norm; if it is above, conditions are improving or recovering. A widening gap matters more than a brief crossover.
Momentum is often the first place a domain-level shift becomes visible. For Composite, this helps determine whether multi-domain deterioration, broad narrative pressure, or reinforcing signals across several domains are still intensifying or whether the pressure is beginning to stabilize.
If Governance and Economy weaken while Society also starts to deteriorate, and the Composite line falls at the same time, analysts should treat the move as broadening risk pressure rather than a one-domain event.
This chart explains Monthly Narrative Risk Pressure by Indicator. It focuses on Shows the month-by-month average narrative risk pressure across the key domains. Composite is excluded so the chart focuses on the individual indicators and their relative movement over time. so users can connect the visual pattern to a concrete monitoring question.
Start with the latest value, then compare direction, persistence, and any related series in the same section. A sustained move with confirmation from evidence, related indicators, or another data source is more important than a one-point change.
This view matters because it provides a specific diagnostic for Monthly Narrative Risk Pressure by Indicator, helping users decide whether the signal is isolated, confirming a broader pattern, or diverging from the rest of the dashboard.
If Monthly Narrative Risk Pressure by Indicator moves sharply but related indicators remain flat and evidence is weak, analysts should treat the move as provisional. If it persists and related signals confirm it, it becomes a stronger monitoring priority.
This chart shows where Watch-level pressure overlaps across multiple OSINT narrative domains during the recent window. It is a breadth and clustering view.
Look at which domains overlap and how much of the window is shared. One isolated Watch signal is less systemic than several domains entering Watch together for an extended period.
Overlap matters because systemic stress often emerges when multiple domains weaken at the same time. It helps users distinguish a single-domain problem from a broader stability pattern.
If Governance, Economy, and Society overlap in Watch for several weeks, analysts should treat the country as facing a broader pressure cluster and review the drivers section for mechanism.
| Indicator | Mean risk (MA14) | MoM | YoY | 24M | EOM risk MA14 | MoM (EOM risk MA14) | EOM risk MA7 | Risk MA7–MA14 | Days in Watch/Stress risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Governance | 55.2 | ↑ +10.2 | +20.0 | +20.1 | 47.9 | ↓ -11.8 | 44.7 | -3.2 | 24/0 |
| Economy | 59.4 | ↑ +13.3 | +23.7 | +23.8 | 53.2 | ↓ -8.5 | 49.7 | -3.5 | 24/14 |
| Society | 58.0 | ↑ +10.9 | +21.4 | +21.4 | 57.2 | ↓ -2.6 | 54.1 | -3.0 | 24/0 |
| National Defense | 57.4 | → +0.6 | +9.7 | +10.2 | 50.2 | ↓ -17.4 | 58.0 | +7.8 | 24/11 |
| Health | 55.7 | ↑ +9.1 | +18.8 | +18.9 | 52.4 | ↓ -7.1 | 49.7 | -2.7 | 24/0 |
| Psychological Strain | 59.6 | ↑ +12.4 | +22.2 | +22.4 | 48.8 | ↓ -13.8 | 46.1 | -2.7 | 24/14 |
This table summarizes the key readings for Where Narrative Pressure Stands Today (by Domain) in a compact, row-by-row format.
Read each row for level, direction, strength, and persistence. The most important rows are those where current level, recent change, and supporting evidence point in the same direction.
Tables support briefing and triage by turning several chart signals into comparable fields that can be scanned quickly.
If one row shows both a weak current level and a worsening recent change, analysts should treat that row as a priority for deeper chart review.
| Series | 30d risk slope (pts/mo) | 90d risk slope (pts/mo) | 365d risk slope (pts/mo) | Risk MA7–MA14 | τ24 | q24 | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Composite | -1.48 | +2.24 | +0.02 | -0.75 | 0.05 | 0.787 | Risk broadly flat |
| Governance | -10.87 | +8.19 | +0.09 | -3.16 | 0.05 | 0.787 | Recovery attempt from weak level |
| Economy | -4.57 | +10.13 | +0.09 | -3.53 | 0.05 | 0.787 | Recovery attempt from weak level |
| Society | -1.63 | +9.61 | +0.08 | -3.02 | 0.07 | 0.787 | Rolling risk easing |
| National Defense | -25.99 | +6.67 | +0.22 | +7.82 | 0.07 | 0.787 | Recovery attempt from weak level |
| Health | -7.13 | +8.10 | +0.09 | -2.67 | 0.05 | 0.787 | Recovery attempt from weak level |
| Psychological Strain | -12.24 | +9.30 | +0.11 | -2.74 | 0.04 | 0.787 | Recovery attempt from weak level |
This table compares short-, medium-, and longer-horizon movement for the Composite and domains. It shows which signals are improving, worsening, flat, or reversing.
Start with the 30-day slope to see what is changing now, then compare it with the 90-day and 365-day slopes. When all horizons point in the same direction, the move is more persistent. When only the short horizon changes, the move may be a new shock or rebound.
Trend diagnostics add timing to the dashboard. They help users decide whether a weak reading is new, persistent, or already stabilizing.
If Governance is flat over 365 days but sharply negative over 30 days, analysts should treat it as a fresh governance shock and look for event drivers before calling it a long-term decline.
Correlation, co-movement, and lead-lag screening among narrative OSINT domains.
Relationships can identify reinforcement or spillover, but they do not prove causation. Treat them as monitoring prompts that require evidence and domain corroboration.
Monthly relationship screens showing which OSINT narrative risk domains reinforce one another and which tend to diverge.
This view shows which OSINT narrative domains tend to move together or diverge over time. It helps identify whether risk pressure is isolated in one domain or linked across several domains.
Look for strong positive relationships, strong negative relationships, and clusters. Positive relationships suggest domains often weaken or improve together; negative relationships suggest divergence. Use the results as analytical prompts, not proof of causation.
Cross-domain relationships matter because instability often spreads through reinforcing channels. Economy pressure may pair with Society pressure, Governance pressure may pair with public unrest, and National Defense pressure may affect several domains at once.
If Economy and Society show strong co-movement, a cost-of-living shock may be more likely to spill into protest, crime, or public-confidence narratives.
| Pair | Correlation (r) | q-value | Correlation strength | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Governance ↔ Society | 1.000 | 0.000 | System-level | System-level positive co-movement: Governance and Society tended to rise or ease together (r=1.00); association only, not causation. |
| Economy ↔ Psychological Strain | 1.000 | 0.000 | System-level | System-level positive co-movement: Economy and Psychological Strain tended to rise or ease together (r=1.00); association only, not causation. |
| National Defense ↔ Health | 0.670 | 0.001 | Strong | Strong positive co-movement: National Defense and Health tended to rise or ease together (r=0.67); association only, not causation. |
| Governance ↔ National Defense | 0.640 | 0.001 | Strong | Strong positive co-movement: Governance and National Defense tended to rise or ease together (r=0.64); association only, not causation. |
This view shows which OSINT narrative domains tend to move together or diverge over time. It helps identify whether risk pressure is isolated in one domain or linked across several domains.
Look for strong positive relationships, strong negative relationships, and clusters. Positive relationships suggest domains often weaken or improve together; negative relationships suggest divergence. Use the results as analytical prompts, not proof of causation.
Cross-domain relationships matter because instability often spreads through reinforcing channels. Economy pressure may pair with Society pressure, Governance pressure may pair with public unrest, and National Defense pressure may affect several domains at once.
If Economy and Society show strong co-movement, a cost-of-living shock may be more likely to spill into protest, crime, or public-confidence narratives.
This chart separates destabilizing pressure from stabilizing support. It shows whether the Composite is moving because pressure is rising, buffers are weakening, or both are happening at the same time.
Compare the pressure and support lines. Rising pressure with stable support suggests an acute stress wave. Falling support with flat pressure suggests weaker resilience. Rising pressure plus falling support is the most concerning pattern.
Understanding the mechanism matters because the response to rising stress is different from the response to weaker shock-absorption capacity.
If Economy pressure rises while Governance support weakens, analysts should treat the move as both a policy/economic problem and a weakening-buffer problem.
This chart explains What Drove Narrative Risk Pressure This Month?. It focuses on Breaks the monthly change in narrative risk pressure score into the indicator contributions that pushed it up or down. so users can connect the visual pattern to a concrete monitoring question.
Start with the latest value, then compare direction, persistence, and any related series in the same section. A sustained move with confirmation from evidence, related indicators, or another data source is more important than a one-point change.
This view matters because it provides a specific diagnostic for What Drove Narrative Risk Pressure This Month?, helping users decide whether the signal is isolated, confirming a broader pattern, or diverging from the rest of the dashboard.
If What Drove Narrative Risk Pressure This Month? moves sharply but related indicators remain flat and evidence is weak, analysts should treat the move as provisional. If it persists and related signals confirm it, it becomes a stronger monitoring priority.
| Lead indicator | Target | Direction | Lag (days) | q-value | Signal strength | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National Defense | Composite | National Defense → Composite | 1 | 0.000 | High | National Defense tends to lead Composite by about 1 days in this screening window; use as timing evidence, not causal proof. |
| Psychological Strain | Composite | Psychological Strain → Composite | 14 | 0.000 | High | Psychological Strain tends to lead Composite by about 14 days in this screening window; use as timing evidence, not causal proof. |
| Society | Composite | Society → Composite | 13 | 0.000 | High | Society tends to lead Composite by about 13 days in this screening window; use as timing evidence, not causal proof. |
| Health | Composite | Health → Composite | 8 | 0.000 | High | Health tends to lead Composite by about 8 days in this screening window; use as timing evidence, not causal proof. |
| Governance | Composite | Governance → Composite | 2 | 0.000 | High | Governance tends to lead Composite by about 2 days in this screening window; use as timing evidence, not causal proof. |
| Economy | Composite | Economy → Composite | 1 | 0.000 | High | Economy tends to lead Composite by about 1 days in this screening window; use as timing evidence, not causal proof. |
This table screens for signals that have historically tended to move before another signal. It is a timing aid that highlights possible early-warning relationships.
Read the direction, lag, and strength together. A useful lead signal should have a plausible relationship, a consistent lag, and enough confidence to justify monitoring. It should not be treated as proof of causation.
Lead-lag screens help analysts decide what to watch first when conditions begin to change. They can reveal whether public concern, narrative pressure, or currency movement tends to appear earlier in the country’s data history.
If Government/Governance search concern often rises before Governance OSINT pressure, analysts should monitor search behavior as an early watch line for legitimacy-related narrative pressure.
| Relationship | Pattern | Lag (days) | q-value | Signal strength | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National Defense ↔ Psychological Strain | Bidirectional / reinforcing | National Defense→Psychological Strain: 1; Psychological Strain→National Defense: 1 | 0.000 | High | National Defense and Psychological Strain both show timing support by about National Defense→Psychological Strain: 1; Psychological Strain→National Defense: 1 days; treat as reinforcing/shared-shock behavior rather than a one-way lead. |
| Economy ↔ National Defense | Bidirectional / reinforcing | Economy→National Defense: 1; National Defense→Economy: 1 | 0.000 | High | Economy and National Defense both show timing support by about Economy→National Defense: 1; National Defense→Economy: 1 days; treat as reinforcing/shared-shock behavior rather than a one-way lead. |
| Society ↔ National Defense | Bidirectional / reinforcing | Society→National Defense: 14; National Defense→Society: 14 | 0.000 | High | Society and National Defense both show timing support by about Society→National Defense: 14; National Defense→Society: 14 days; treat as reinforcing/shared-shock behavior rather than a one-way lead. |
| Governance ↔ National Defense | Bidirectional / reinforcing | Governance→National Defense: 1; National Defense→Governance: 1 | 0.000 | High | Governance and National Defense both show timing support by about Governance→National Defense: 1; National Defense→Governance: 1 days; treat as reinforcing/shared-shock behavior rather than a one-way lead. |
| National Defense ↔ Health | Bidirectional / reinforcing | National Defense→Health: 8; Health→National Defense: 14 | 0.000 | High | National Defense and Health both show timing support by about National Defense→Health: 8; Health→National Defense: 14 days; treat as reinforcing/shared-shock behavior rather than a one-way lead. |
| Economy ↔ Psychological Strain | Bidirectional / reinforcing | Economy→Psychological Strain: 8; Psychological Strain→Economy: 14 | 0.000 | High | Economy and Psychological Strain both show timing support by about Economy→Psychological Strain: 8; Psychological Strain→Economy: 14 days; treat as reinforcing/shared-shock behavior rather than a one-way lead. |
| Health ↔ Psychological Strain | Bidirectional / reinforcing | Health→Psychological Strain: 8; Psychological Strain→Health: 14 | 0.000 | High | Health and Psychological Strain both show timing support by about Health→Psychological Strain: 8; Psychological Strain→Health: 14 days; treat as reinforcing/shared-shock behavior rather than a one-way lead. |
| Governance ↔ Psychological Strain | Bidirectional / reinforcing | Governance→Psychological Strain: 8; Psychological Strain→Governance: 14 | 0.000 | High | Governance and Psychological Strain both show timing support by about Governance→Psychological Strain: 8; Psychological Strain→Governance: 14 days; treat as reinforcing/shared-shock behavior rather than a one-way lead. |
This table summarizes the key readings for Potential Narrative Spillovers Between Indicators in a compact, row-by-row format.
Read each row for level, direction, strength, and persistence. The most important rows are those where current level, recent change, and supporting evidence point in the same direction.
Tables support briefing and triage by turning several chart signals into comparable fields that can be scanned quickly.
If one row shows both a weak current level and a worsening recent change, analysts should treat that row as a priority for deeper chart review.
Relative public search interest across monitored concern topics and its movement over time.
Search interest measures public attention, not sentiment or country risk directly. Persistent movement is most useful when narrative, domain, or market evidence confirms it.
Search-driven public concern analysis for Disease/Illness, Anxiety/Stress, Unemployment, Crime/Safety, and Government/Governance, including forecasts, relationships, and cross-channel linkages.
This chart shows how overall Public Search concern is changing over time. It reflects what people are actively searching for, not OSINT reporting tone or Forex behavior.
Read the level and direction of search interest. Sustained increases suggest public concern is building; flat or falling values suggest concern is steady or easing. Compare spikes with topic-level momentum to see what is driving the aggregate move.
Search behavior can reveal public attention before it appears in narrative reporting. It helps identify whether concerns are broadening beneath the surface of the news stream.
If overall public concern rises while anxiety and unemployment topics rise together, analysts should check whether Economy, Society, or Psychological Strain narratives begin to confirm the same pattern.
This chart compares short-term Public Search interest with its recent baseline for overall public concern. It shows whether searches related to the combined Public Search signal across monitored concern topics are accelerating, fading, or stabilizing.
Read the short-term line against the baseline. If the short-term signal rises above the baseline and stays there, public concern is building. If it falls below the baseline, concern is easing. A single crossover is less important than persistence across several observations.
Search behavior can move before narrative reporting or formal indicators. For overall public concern, momentum matters because public attention is broadening rather than staying confined to one concern.
If overall public concern rises while Anxiety/Stress and Unemployment also rise, analysts should treat the move as broader public unease and compare it with the OSINT narrative trend.
This chart explains Disease/Illness Concern: Short-Term Change (On-Demand). It focuses on Useful only as a drill-down when disease/illness is one of the topics currently moving most. The chart compares very recent activity (MA2) against the broader short-term baseline (MA8) to measure momentum and directional change. An MA2 line moving above or ahead of the MA8 line signals accelerating concern and potential emerging pressure, while an MA2 line below the MA8 line indicates weakening momentum, easing public attention, or normalization after a spike. so users can connect the visual pattern to a concrete monitoring question.
Start with the latest value, then compare direction, persistence, and any related series in the same section. A sustained move with confirmation from evidence, related indicators, or another data source is more important than a one-point change.
This view matters because it provides a specific diagnostic for Disease/Illness Concern: Short-Term Change (On-Demand), helping users decide whether the signal is isolated, confirming a broader pattern, or diverging from the rest of the dashboard.
If Disease/Illness Concern: Short-Term Change (On-Demand) moves sharply but related indicators remain flat and evidence is weak, analysts should treat the move as provisional. If it persists and related signals confirm it, it becomes a stronger monitoring priority.
This chart explains Anxiety/Stress Concern: Short-Term Change (On-Demand). It focuses on Useful only as a drill-down when anxiety/stress is one of the topics currently moving most. The chart compares very recent activity (MA2) against the broader short-term baseline (MA8) to measure momentum and directional change. An MA2 line moving above or ahead of the MA8 line signals accelerating concern and potential emerging pressure, while an MA2 line below the MA8 line indicates weakening momentum, easing public attention, or normalization after a spike. so users can connect the visual pattern to a concrete monitoring question.
Start with the latest value, then compare direction, persistence, and any related series in the same section. A sustained move with confirmation from evidence, related indicators, or another data source is more important than a one-point change.
This view matters because it provides a specific diagnostic for Anxiety/Stress Concern: Short-Term Change (On-Demand), helping users decide whether the signal is isolated, confirming a broader pattern, or diverging from the rest of the dashboard.
If Anxiety/Stress Concern: Short-Term Change (On-Demand) moves sharply but related indicators remain flat and evidence is weak, analysts should treat the move as provisional. If it persists and related signals confirm it, it becomes a stronger monitoring priority.
This chart explains Unemployment Concern: Short-Term Change (On-Demand). It focuses on Useful only as a drill-down when unemployment is one of the topics currently moving most. The chart compares very recent activity (MA2) against the broader short-term baseline (MA8) to measure momentum and directional change. An MA2 line moving above or ahead of the MA8 line signals accelerating concern and potential emerging pressure, while an MA2 line below the MA8 line indicates weakening momentum, easing public attention, or normalization after a spike. so users can connect the visual pattern to a concrete monitoring question.
Start with the latest value, then compare direction, persistence, and any related series in the same section. A sustained move with confirmation from evidence, related indicators, or another data source is more important than a one-point change.
This view matters because it provides a specific diagnostic for Unemployment Concern: Short-Term Change (On-Demand), helping users decide whether the signal is isolated, confirming a broader pattern, or diverging from the rest of the dashboard.
If Unemployment Concern: Short-Term Change (On-Demand) moves sharply but related indicators remain flat and evidence is weak, analysts should treat the move as provisional. If it persists and related signals confirm it, it becomes a stronger monitoring priority.
This chart explains Crime/Safety Concern: Short-Term Change (On-Demand). It focuses on Useful only as a drill-down when crime/safety is one of the topics currently moving most. The chart compares very recent activity (MA2) against the broader short-term baseline (MA8) to measure momentum and directional change. An MA2 line moving above or ahead of the MA8 line signals accelerating concern and potential emerging pressure, while an MA2 line below the MA8 line indicates weakening momentum, easing public attention, or normalization after a spike. so users can connect the visual pattern to a concrete monitoring question.
Start with the latest value, then compare direction, persistence, and any related series in the same section. A sustained move with confirmation from evidence, related indicators, or another data source is more important than a one-point change.
This view matters because it provides a specific diagnostic for Crime/Safety Concern: Short-Term Change (On-Demand), helping users decide whether the signal is isolated, confirming a broader pattern, or diverging from the rest of the dashboard.
If Crime/Safety Concern: Short-Term Change (On-Demand) moves sharply but related indicators remain flat and evidence is weak, analysts should treat the move as provisional. If it persists and related signals confirm it, it becomes a stronger monitoring priority.
This chart explains Government/Governance Concern: Short-Term Change (On-Demand). It focuses on Useful only as a drill-down when government/governance is one of the topics currently moving most. The chart compares very recent activity (MA2) against the broader short-term baseline (MA8) to measure momentum and directional change. An MA2 line moving above or ahead of the MA8 line signals accelerating concern and potential emerging pressure, while an MA2 line below the MA8 line indicates weakening momentum, easing public attention, or normalization after a spike. so users can connect the visual pattern to a concrete monitoring question.
Start with the latest value, then compare direction, persistence, and any related series in the same section. A sustained move with confirmation from evidence, related indicators, or another data source is more important than a one-point change.
This view matters because it provides a specific diagnostic for Government/Governance Concern: Short-Term Change (On-Demand), helping users decide whether the signal is isolated, confirming a broader pattern, or diverging from the rest of the dashboard.
If Government/Governance Concern: Short-Term Change (On-Demand) moves sharply but related indicators remain flat and evidence is weak, analysts should treat the move as provisional. If it persists and related signals confirm it, it becomes a stronger monitoring priority.
Screened relationships among public-search concern topics, including strength and statistical controls where available.
Use co-movement to identify clusters of public concern. Association does not establish causation and should not be converted directly into a headline risk score.
Monthly relationship screens showing which public search topics reinforce one another and which tend to diverge.
| Pair | Correlation (r) | q-value | Correlation strength | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Disease/Illness ↔ Anxiety/Stress | 0.710 | 0.000 | Very strong | Very strong positive co-movement: Disease/Illness and Anxiety/Stress tended to rise or ease together (r=0.71); association only, not causation. |
| Anxiety/Stress ↔ Unemployment | 0.610 | 0.000 | Strong | Strong positive co-movement: Anxiety/Stress and Unemployment tended to rise or ease together (r=0.61); association only, not causation. |
| Crime/Safety ↔ Government/Governance | 0.602 | 0.000 | Strong | Strong positive co-movement: Crime/Safety and Government/Governance tended to rise or ease together (r=0.60); association only, not causation. |
| Unemployment ↔ Government/Governance | 0.598 | 0.000 | Strong | Strong positive co-movement: Unemployment and Government/Governance tended to rise or ease together (r=0.60); association only, not causation. |
| Unemployment ↔ Crime/Safety | 0.556 | 0.000 | Strong | Strong positive co-movement: Unemployment and Crime/Safety tended to rise or ease together (r=0.56); association only, not causation. |
| Disease/Illness ↔ Unemployment | 0.458 | 0.000 | Moderate | Moderate positive co-movement: Disease/Illness and Unemployment tended to rise or ease together (r=0.46); association only, not causation. |
| Anxiety/Stress ↔ Government/Governance | 0.437 | 0.001 | Moderate | Moderate positive co-movement: Anxiety/Stress and Government/Governance tended to rise or ease together (r=0.44); association only, not causation. |
| Anxiety/Stress ↔ Crime/Safety | 0.403 | 0.002 | Moderate | Moderate positive co-movement: Anxiety/Stress and Crime/Safety tended to rise or ease together (r=0.40); association only, not causation. |
| Pair | Correlation (r) | q-value | Correlation strength | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Disease/Illness ↔ Anxiety/Stress | 0.710 | 0.000 | Very strong | Very strong positive co-movement: Disease/Illness and Anxiety/Stress tended to rise or ease together (r=0.71); association only, not causation. |
| Anxiety/Stress ↔ Unemployment | 0.610 | 0.000 | Strong | Strong positive co-movement: Anxiety/Stress and Unemployment tended to rise or ease together (r=0.61); association only, not causation. |
| Crime/Safety ↔ Government/Governance | 0.602 | 0.000 | Strong | Strong positive co-movement: Crime/Safety and Government/Governance tended to rise or ease together (r=0.60); association only, not causation. |
| Unemployment ↔ Government/Governance | 0.598 | 0.000 | Strong | Strong positive co-movement: Unemployment and Government/Governance tended to rise or ease together (r=0.60); association only, not causation. |
| Unemployment ↔ Crime/Safety | 0.556 | 0.000 | Strong | Strong positive co-movement: Unemployment and Crime/Safety tended to rise or ease together (r=0.56); association only, not causation. |
| Disease/Illness ↔ Unemployment | 0.458 | 0.000 | Moderate | Moderate positive co-movement: Disease/Illness and Unemployment tended to rise or ease together (r=0.46); association only, not causation. |
| Anxiety/Stress ↔ Government/Governance | 0.437 | 0.001 | Moderate | Moderate positive co-movement: Anxiety/Stress and Government/Governance tended to rise or ease together (r=0.44); association only, not causation. |
| Anxiety/Stress ↔ Crime/Safety | 0.403 | 0.002 | Moderate | Moderate positive co-movement: Anxiety/Stress and Crime/Safety tended to rise or ease together (r=0.40); association only, not causation. |
This view shows which Public Search concerns tend to move together or diverge. It uses search-interest behavior to identify clusters of public attention, such as concern about unemployment moving with concern about governance or crime and safety.
Look for the strongest positive and negative relationships. Positive relationships suggest concerns rise and fall together; negative relationships suggest divergence. Treat these as relationship screens, not proof that one concern causes another.
Public concern clusters matter because they can reveal when anxiety is broadening across issues. That can help analysts anticipate whether a single concern is likely to remain isolated or become part of a wider public-pressure pattern.
If Unemployment and Government/Governance concern move together for several months, analysts should check whether economic anxiety is becoming a legitimacy or policy-confidence issue.
The country currency or an explicit benchmark exchange-rate series, its recent direction, latest observation date, and market-pressure interpretation.
Currency is a required market-facing cross-check for every country. A weakening currency can confirm Economy or Governance pressure, while divergence can identify timing differences. It is not a standalone country-risk verdict.
Financial views showing whether currency behavior is reinforcing or diverging from the country’s narrative-risk signal.
Three standardized risk-pressure readings derived from USD/SEK.
Higher values mean greater currency pressure. Compare the latest signal with the monthly baseline and the 90-day range. A higher rate means the Sweden currency (SEK) is weaker against the U.S. dollar.
Currency pressure can confirm or diverge from Economy and Governance evidence. Source: Sweden_fin.csv; latest observation: 2026-08-22.
If the latest signal rises above its baseline while economic narratives worsen, treat the combined evidence as stronger than either channel alone.
The USD/SEK exchange rate through 2026-08-22, smoothed with a seven-day moving average.
Read the slope and persistence, not a single point. A higher rate means the Sweden currency (SEK) is weaker against the U.S. dollar.
The market series is a confirmation and timing layer; it does not independently determine the integrated country-risk score. Source: Sweden_fin.csv.
A sustained adverse move alongside rising Economy or Governance risk is more decision-relevant than a brief isolated currency fluctuation.
Comparison of narrative OSINT, Public Search, and currency/market signals to show confirmation, divergence, and possible timing differences.
Convergence across independent channels increases confidence. Divergence is analytically important and should be explained rather than averaged away.
Shows where narrative risk signals, public concern, and financial indicators move together or diverge, helping determine whether observed risks are broadly supported or isolated.
This chart explains Public Search Interest vs OSINT Narrative Signal Map. It focuses on Shows measurable co-movement among public-search topics and OSINT Narrative indicators. Displayed relationships require |r| ≥ 0.30 and q-value ≤ 0.10 when available. Correlation strength is classified as Moderate (.30–.49), Strong (.50–.69), Very strong (.70–.84), or System-level (.85+). When several signals form a system-wide cluster, redundant pairs are suppressed and representative links are shown. Correlation is association, not causation. so users can connect the visual pattern to a concrete monitoring question.
Start with the latest value, then compare direction, persistence, and any related series in the same section. A sustained move with confirmation from evidence, related indicators, or another data source is more important than a one-point change.
This view matters because it provides a specific diagnostic for Public Search Interest vs OSINT Narrative Signal Map, helping users decide whether the signal is isolated, confirming a broader pattern, or diverging from the rest of the dashboard.
If Public Search Interest vs OSINT Narrative Signal Map moves sharply but related indicators remain flat and evidence is weak, analysts should treat the move as provisional. If it persists and related signals confirm it, it becomes a stronger monitoring priority.
This view compares Public Search concern with currency pressure. It shows whether public attention and market stress are moving together or diverging.
Read alignment, timing, and persistence. If public concern rises with currency pressure, the channels reinforce one another. If one moves first, it may provide a watch signal. If they diverge, investigate whether the concern is not market-relevant or whether the market reaction is delayed.
This matters because public concern and market pressure capture different audiences. Alignment suggests a broader confidence issue, while divergence can reveal a compartmentalized concern.
If Government/Governance searches rise and currency pressure follows, analysts should check whether policy credibility or political uncertainty is becoming market-relevant.
This chart explains Public Search Interest That May Lead OSINT Narrative Indicators. It focuses on Screens for cases where public-search topic interest historically tended to move before an OSINT Narrative key indicator. The table focuses on public search leading narrative indicators; reverse-only relationships are excluded because they do not answer the early-public-concern question. so users can connect the visual pattern to a concrete monitoring question.
Start with the latest value, then compare direction, persistence, and any related series in the same section. A sustained move with confirmation from evidence, related indicators, or another data source is more important than a one-point change.
This view matters because it provides a specific diagnostic for Public Search Interest That May Lead OSINT Narrative Indicators, helping users decide whether the signal is isolated, confirming a broader pattern, or diverging from the rest of the dashboard.
If Public Search Interest That May Lead OSINT Narrative Indicators moves sharply but related indicators remain flat and evidence is weak, analysts should treat the move as provisional. If it persists and related signals confirm it, it becomes a stronger monitoring priority.
This chart explains Public Concern vs Overall Risk Signal. It focuses on Compares overall public-search concern with the dashboard’s overall narrative risk signal to show whether public attention is reinforcing or diverging from the main picture. so users can connect the visual pattern to a concrete monitoring question.
Start with the latest value, then compare direction, persistence, and any related series in the same section. A sustained move with confirmation from evidence, related indicators, or another data source is more important than a one-point change.
This view matters because it provides a specific diagnostic for Public Concern vs Overall Risk Signal, helping users decide whether the signal is isolated, confirming a broader pattern, or diverging from the rest of the dashboard.
If Public Concern vs Overall Risk Signal moves sharply but related indicators remain flat and evidence is weak, analysts should treat the move as provisional. If it persists and related signals confirm it, it becomes a stronger monitoring priority.
This chart explains Public Search Interest vs Currency Pressure Map. It focuses on Shows measurable co-movement among public-search topics and currency pressure. Displayed relationships require |r| ≥ 0.30 and q-value ≤ 0.10 when available. Correlation strength is classified as Moderate (.30–.49), Strong (.50–.69), Very strong (.70–.84), or System-level (.85+). When several signals form a system-wide cluster, redundant pairs are suppressed and representative links are shown. Correlation is association, not causation. so users can connect the visual pattern to a concrete monitoring question.
Start with the latest value, then compare direction, persistence, and any related series in the same section. A sustained move with confirmation from evidence, related indicators, or another data source is more important than a one-point change.
This view matters because it provides a specific diagnostic for Public Search Interest vs Currency Pressure Map, helping users decide whether the signal is isolated, confirming a broader pattern, or diverging from the rest of the dashboard.
If Public Search Interest vs Currency Pressure Map moves sharply but related indicators remain flat and evidence is weak, analysts should treat the move as provisional. If it persists and related signals confirm it, it becomes a stronger monitoring priority.
This table summarizes Public Search concern patterns, relationships, or outlook values depending on the row set shown. It is based on what people are actively searching for, not on OSINT reporting tone.
Read the rows for topic-level concentration, direction, and strength. Public Search values are best used to identify rising concern, issue clustering, or concern that may precede narrative reporting.
Public Search tables help reveal what people are worried about before those concerns fully appear in the narrative stream or market data.
If Anxiety/Stress and Crime/Safety concerns both rise while Society OSINT is still flat, analysts should treat public concern as an early watch line and wait for narrative confirmation.
This view shows which OSINT or Public Search signals have moved most closely with currency pressure. It is a cross-channel confirmation screen, not a causal model.
Focus on relationships with meaningful strength and a plausible country story. A strong positive relationship suggests the signal and currency pressure tend to rise together; weak or inconsistent relationships should not drive decisions on their own.
When currency pressure aligns with a narrative or public-concern signal, the dashboard is showing that risk may be visible in both information and market channels. Divergence is also useful because it may indicate delayed market reaction or over-amplified narrative pressure.
If Governance pressure is strongly aligned with currency pressure, analysts should examine whether policy uncertainty or institutional concerns are affecting market confidence.
This table screens for signals that have historically tended to move before another signal. It is a timing aid that highlights possible early-warning relationships.
Read the direction, lag, and strength together. A useful lead signal should have a plausible relationship, a consistent lag, and enough confidence to justify monitoring. It should not be treated as proof of causation.
Lead-lag screens help analysts decide what to watch first when conditions begin to change. They can reveal whether public concern, narrative pressure, or currency movement tends to appear earlier in the country’s data history.
If Government/Governance search concern often rises before Governance OSINT pressure, analysts should monitor search behavior as an early watch line for legitimacy-related narrative pressure.
Forecast charts for the underlying monitored signal channels and domain series, including uncertainty ranges. The approved integrated 90-day headline outlook remains in the Current Risk Overview and assessment.
Do not treat these underlying chart forecasts as replacements for the integrated headline Outlook. Some underlying series are stability-oriented, where falling values indicate weakening; read each chart’s local axis and notes before interpreting direction.
Forward-looking view of integrated country risk, showing the overall forecast path, uncertainty range, and domain-level forecast ranges over the next 13 weeks (~90 days).
This chart explains Integrated Risk Outlook. It focuses on Shows the recent integrated country-risk path and the forecast median with uncertainty range over the next 13 weeks (~90 days). Use it to assess likely direction and confidence in the overall outlook. so users can connect the visual pattern to a concrete monitoring question.
Start with the latest value, then compare direction, persistence, and any related series in the same section. A sustained move with confirmation from evidence, related indicators, or another data source is more important than a one-point change.
This view matters because it provides a specific diagnostic for Integrated Risk Outlook, helping users decide whether the signal is isolated, confirming a broader pattern, or diverging from the rest of the dashboard.
If Integrated Risk Outlook moves sharply but related indicators remain flat and evidence is weak, analysts should treat the move as provisional. If it persists and related signals confirm it, it becomes a stronger monitoring priority.